NBA Odds: How To Find Value When Betting Celtics-Heat Conference Finals

The Celtics have taken down the defending champions, outlasting the Milwaukee Bucks in seven games. Is it time for them to claim the crown?

Well, maybe. Let’s take it a series at a time. There are plenty of betting opportunities in the meantime before an NBA Finals champion is crowned. Let’s talk about some of those options and — most importantly, the concept of “value.”

It doesn’t matter what point it is in any series, with any team (and really any sport) – the concept of identifying value remains the same.

We will use the Celtics’ journey to the Eastern Conference finals as an example. When the Bucks were up 2-1 in Round 2, the Celtics’ odds were 10-1 to win it all. Four days later, after eliminating Milwaukee, Boston’s odds improved to +210.

So, you went from potentially winning $1,000 on a $100 bet to just $210. All before kicking off their series against the Heat. Value is lost and gained that quickly.

The Celtics opened the conference finals with the Miami Heat as -170 favorites. This price shows how much respect the bookmakers have for the Celtics. Is it possible the Celtics come off just one day of rest and take Game 1 and/or 2 on the road against Miami? Sure, but unlikely. The fact that they open as heavy favorites proves bookmakers believe the Celtics are the better team, even opening the series on the road.

Now, remember that “value” piece. If the Celtics lose one or two games to start the series, that -170 will drop and you’ll get a better payout in the end (if they do win the series).

But wait, there’s more. Bookmakers made six the favorite for the “series total games” prop – priced at +180. That means you put down $100 to win $180 if the series goes 6 games – no matter who wins. Game 6 would be played at TD Garden. Instead of betting the series total number of games, consider betting the Celtics to win in 6 games at +290. Is it the same bet? No, but this is better value in my opinion for a likely result, with Boston having home-court advantage.

Let’s circle back to that “claiming the crown” question. If you think Boston takes care of the Heat and defeats whoever comes out of the West for the title – instead of betting them at +210 – consider betting Jayson Tatum as Finals MVP at +270. Sixty cents might not seem like a big deal, but winning $270 is better than $210, right? If the Celtics do win it all, there’s no question they got to that point with Tatum as their centerpiece. While you might believe there are other players more valuable, the narrative alone will get Tatum votes.

Regardless of whether you place a bet in this series, keep the concept of value in mind and watch how the market changes. You will learn more than you think and it will make you a profitable bettor in the long run.

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