Brian Cox (‘Succession’) vs. Lee Jung-jae (‘Squid Game’): Who will win the Emmy after their SAG Awards duel?

A few months ago the SAG Awards came down to “Squid Game” and “Succession,” with “Squid Game” claiming three awards and “Succession” rallying to win the top prize for best TV drama ensemble. The two shows face off again at the Emmys in several head-to-head match-ups, but perhaps the biggest nail-biter among them is Best Drama Actor.

At the SAG Awards there were three “Succession” men up for the TV drama actor award: Emmy winner Jeremy Strong, Brian Cox, and Kieran Culkin. That’s because the SAG Awards group lead and supporting television actors together into a single category, and it turned out to be a blessing and a curse for “Succession.” Perhaps in part because Strong, Cox, and Culkin siphoned votes from each other, “Squid Game” star Lee Jung-jae emerged victorious. But it might not just have been vote-splitting that led to that result; in the TV drama actress race, “Squid Game’s” Jung Ho-yeon beat “Succession’s” Sarah Snook even though Snook didn’t have any internal competition from co-stars.

Now Strong, Cox, and Lee will face off again for Best Drama Actor at the Primetime Emmys — Culkin is nominated in the supporting category — so can we expect the same result with Lee coming out on top? Maybe, but maybe not. Strong and Cox were in a similar conundrum in 2020, nominated against each other in the same category, but Strong still managed to win. Obviously Cox didn’t take too many votes away from him, or perhaps they were both so far out front that they could afford to split votes and one of them was still bound to win.

This year we’re predicting a reversal of fortunes. Instead of Strong winning, this time our odds favor Cox. But it’s going to be close. The Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets are split right down the middle between Cox and Lee. So are our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmy winners. So are we about to see a repeat of the SAG Awards, or will Cox be the one to win this power struggle?

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