Los Angeles Angels Series Preview: They’re doing Tom Petty proud

Get it? Because they’re free fallin’.

The date was May 24 and the Angels had just beaten the Texas Rangers 5-3. They were 10 games over .500 and just a game behind the Houston Astros for first place in the AL West. It seemed that the team with two of the best players in the whole sport were finally going to be competitors. Then they lost the next day and they day after that and for 12 more consecutive games after that. They fired their manager at some point in that stretch. And they just never got back on track with Phil Nevin in charge of things. They did take four of five from a Mariners team that now makes that series look more impressive, but they immediately dropped two of three to the Royals and they haven’t won more than two games in a row since sweeping a double header in that Mariners series on June 18 and winning the next day. It’s a disaster in Anaheim right now that not even Shohei Ohtani can fix.

Royals vs. Angels Projected Pitching Matchups

While he hasn’t been the same pitcher he was with the Yankees before his Tommy John Surgery, Noah Syndergaard has still been just fine for the Angels this year, though maybe not as good as his contract would suggest he should be. He just isn’t throwing as hard as he once was and while he was often not quite as big of a strikeout pitcher as anyone thought he should be, they’re way down this season for the big righty. His sinker is averaging just 94 MPH, which is a far cry from the 97.5 he averaged in 2019. It’s still been a legitimately great pitch for him with a .167 average allowed and .200 SLG, but I think the lack of velocity has hurt his changeup some. He’s also using the changeup more, so maybe it’s just getting exposed a bit, but it’s still not been as good as we’ve seen in the past. Syndergaard has been much better at home than on the road, so that’s good for the Royals.

Career vs. KC: 4 GS, 25.1 IP, 2-2, 3.55 ERA

Yeah, I’m going to use what I wrote during the Rays seris because why not? Zack Greinke’s first half ended with a bit of a thud in his outing against the Blue Jays in Toronto. That’s sort of a theme for him this season. He’s allowed more than two runs in six of his 15 starts. All six of those starts have been on the road. He has a 1.86 ERA at home and 7.38 on the road. Of the 11 home runs he’s allowed, 10 have been on the road. Some of that could be a quirk of the schedule. He’s had to pitch in Colorado and Arizona, both great hitter’s parks, as well as against the Blue Jays and Astros on the road while he missed both those teams at home. This is not an Angels lineup that strikes a lot of fear in pitchers once you get past the top of the order, but that doesn’t mean they can’t do some damage with some young bats who do actually have a chance to put up some numbers, so Greinke can’t just take the day off after getting past the tougher hitters.

Career vs. LAA: 19 G, 18 GS, 118.1 IP, 7-5, 3.57 ERA

Jose Suarez has had sort of an interesting start to his career. As a 21-year old, he came to the big leagues without an especially great minor league track record and he wasn’t good. He was terrible in 2020 in just two starts but then put it together last season. He split time between the bullpen and the rotation, but he was pretty solid. He could have used a couple more strikeouts and maybe a couple fewer walks, but all in all, he was good. This season he’s found the strikeouts, but they’ve come with even more walks and more hits and more home runs. His fastball this season has been absolutely pounded. Opponents are hitting .339 with a .661 SLG on it. He only throws it about a third of the time, but you wonder if he should ever throw it. It’s not like his other pitches have been world beaters, but anything has to be better than that. It’s probably no surprise that righties have hit him hard with a .273/.361/.496 SLG, which may not be that big of a deal against a Royals lineup that has started leaning a little extra to the left.

Career vs. KC: First Appearance

The Royals have some options here, but we don’t know who is starting this one. The choices seem to be Angel Zerpa or Carlos Hernandez who both threw just an inning in their starts for Omaha out of the break. They could also go bullpen game or semi-bullpen game with Jackson Kowar. We’ll update once we know.

The Angels are giving Ohtani an extra day, so he won’t start until Thursday, which means they’ll need a starter for this one. We’ll update once we know.

Brad Keller will get his second start of the second half and is looking to simply be better than he was against the Rays on Friday night to start the post-break schedule. He walked five batters, which maybe doesn’t strike anyone as terribly shocking. But it should. He hadn’t walked more than three in any game this season, so to walk five in four innings is a pretty big difference. I noted this on Inside the Crown, but his horizontal movement was down on all of his pitches and it makes me wonder if the long layoff between outings caused him some issues. If it’s more than that and proves to be something mechanical, that could be an issue because the Royals have struggled to get Keller right mechanically in any kind of short order in the past. But if he was just shaking off some cobwebs and can get back to what he was doing before the break, that would be nice to see. In his last five starts before the break, Keller had a 2.15 ERA in 29 innings with 26 strikeouts and 11 walks.

Career vs. LAA: 6 G, 5 GS, 29.0 IP, 2-3, 3.72 ERA

Royals vs. Angels Prediction

I like the way the Royals are playing right now. They’re 21-20 in their last 41 and they’re 20-17 in their last 37 with their full roster. The Angels are obviously playing poorly, so I like this matchup. But the problem comes when we really don’t know who is going to be on the roster at any given point this time of year. I’m going to say the Royals take two of three from the Angels, but there’s a risk in any sort of prediction on an obvious seller.