MMO Trade Profile: Aaron Loup

Position: LHP

Age: 12/19/1987 (34)

Stats: 38 G, 0-3, 4.13 ERA, 0 SV, 38 K, 1.316 WHIP, 32.2 IP

Rundown

Aaron Loup enjoyed an excellent for the New York Mets after signing a one-year deal on January 27th, 2021. He is familiar with Queens and has experienced success for the club.

Last season, Loup pitched to a 0.95 ERA in 65 games. His FIP was an excellent 2.45, his WHIP was 0.935, and lefties slashed .167/.226/.214. He even fared well against righties, as they slashed .211/.290/.257. Loup was a proven, reliable option out of the bullpen for then-manager Luis Rojas.

Loup’s ERA at home throughout the 2021 season was 0.57, and the BABIP was .214. Citi Field is a solid park for pitchers. On the road, his ERA was still a reliable 1.44, and the BABIP was .304, so hitters had slightly more luck on the road against Loup than they were in the confines of Citi Field.

Due to Loup’s incredible season in Queens, he earned himself quite a payday on the open market. On November 22nd, 2021, he signed a two-year deal worth $17M, with a team option in 2024 with the Los Angeles Angels. With the Angels in desperate need of all things pitching, Loup was expected to be a key arm out of their bullpen.

However, 2022 has not been as kind to Loup and the Angels. The club has struggled mightily, and since firing manager Joe Maddon on June 8th, the club is 12-24, totaling a record of 39-53, good for fourth in the AL West. Loup has struggled, as well. The lefty has appeared in 38 games with an ERA of 4.13, his FIP is 3.85, and his WHIP is 1.31. However, lefties are still struggling to have success, with a slash line of .154/.283/.256, Loup is still a reliable reliever that knows how to get lefty hitters out, something the Mets can use as they approach the trade deadline.

There is some caution, however. According to Baseball Savant, Loup’s sinker velocity is down from the 92.4 mph he averaged in 2021. Last year, opponents hit .188 off the sinker. In 2022, the sinker velocity averages 91.5 mph, and the opponents hit .290 off the pitch. The decreased sinker velocity and lack of feel for the pitch could be why he has allowed four homers this season. The cutter seems to be Loup’s out pitch this season, as hitters have hit .178 off the pitch. Nearly 89% of the pitches Loup throws are sinkers-cutters.

In a division with the lefties Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, and Matt Olson, the Mets need a reliable lefty down the stretch that has familiarity with getting quality lefties out. Loup has shown in the past, in this division, that he can.

As the Mets begin the second half, Joely Rodríguez is the lone lefty reliever on the roster. Acquired on April 3rd, 2022, from the New York Yankees in exchange for RHP Miguel Castro, Rodríguez is holding lefties to a .204/.316/.265 slash line, but his 4.67 ERA is still a bit too high. The 5.84 ERA on the road for Rodríguez is another concern. For the Mets, it is becoming increasingly likely that the team will explore outside options for lefty relief pitching as we approach the deadline. Veteran Chasen Shreve was DFA’d on July 8th after posting a 6.49 ERA.

Package

It is hard to see the Angels balking at trading a 34-year-old reliever in a season that has gone south for the Halos. However, with another year on Loup’s contract in which he is owed $7.5M, the Mets can easily absorb that and send back a much lesser prospect. The Angels likely want to clear some money off the books. It’s unlikely the Mets would have to send back a top-20 prospect for Loup, so perhaps something like RHP Christian Scott may be enough for the Angels to cut ties with Loup and clear the money off the books. Don’t forget that the Angels need every amount necessary to sign two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani before he hits free agency after the 2023 season. So, Mets fans, do we want to see a Loup reunion in Queens? Let us know in the comments.

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