Why you shouldn't bet the house on the Ravens just because Joe Flacco's starting for the Jets in Week 1

Zach Wilson worked out with the New York Jets this week as he rehabilitates a torn meniscus and bone bruise in his right knee. But he won’t make his 2022 debut in Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens.

Instead, those duties will fall to Joe Flacco, the backup quarterback who has aged like a backup quarterback. Flacco, 37, hasn’t started more than half the games in a season since 2018. He is 0-5 as the Jets’ starter over the last two seasons, swapping in for Wilson and Sam Darnold to claim his spot on New York’s carousel of passing sadness.

Now he gets to face the Ravens’ perpetually scary defense, a unit that fell off in 2021 but added Marcus Williams, Kyle Fuller, rookie Kyle Hamilton and a healthy Marlon Humphrey/Marcus Peters combination to its secondary for 2022.

That’s a rough sled for any quarterback, let alone one who has only thrown 176 passes in two years. But while the Ravens -7 spread is sure to climb following the announcement — it’s already moved from -5.5 thanks to the QB uncertainty in northern New Jersey — Baltimore is no lock to cover. Joe Flacco, and I can’t really believe I’m saying this in the year of our lord 2022, is better than you think.

Flacco was the Jets’ best quarterback last season. This was not a high bar to clear but he cleared it regardless. He led the team in touchdown rate, yards per attempt and passer rating.

Granted, one of his two appearances came in mop-up duty in a blowout loss to the Bills. Even so, he did everything about as well as he could have before meeting expectations one week later against the Dolphins and their top 10 defense (24 of 39, 291 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions). 54 of those yards came in a desperation drive after the game was already decided, but Flacco was the starting quarterback of a divisional game that was tied going into the fourth quarter. It wasn’t *all* fluff.

If you set the standards for qualification low enough, Flacco was a top 10 quarterback per NFL Next Gen Stats’ Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) metrics:

via RBSDM.com

That’s mostly nonsense — you only have to look at the other names on that list to know it’s not *really* a top 10 (Gardner Minshew! Josh Johnson!) — but it mostly serves to show Flacco can be useful filler in short spurts.

This isn’t the most important factor to consider when trepidatiously dropping a few bucks on the Jets to cover, however. It’s that his young receiving corps seems to prefer him over the player New York hopes will be its franchise quarterback.

“There’s definitely a difference,” rookie first round pick Garrett Wilson told reporters during training camp. “It’s a lot of experience right there with Flacco. I feel like everything with him, he takes some pace off, puts some pace on the ball. He does a good job of making the passes receiver-friendly. That’s the best way I can put it into words. They’re pretty easy to catch. Takes some off the ball when you’re running a slant route versus an out route, put some zip on it because it’s gotta be. Things like that.”

That’s a big deal! New York has several inexperienced playmakers looking to leave their mark on the league. That includes Wilson, second-year wideout Elijah Moore, and tailbacks Breece Hall (rookie) and Michael Carter (sophomore). Flacco’s presence — his CPOE of 5.4 was light years ahead of Wilson’s -9.6 (!!) — leaves a little more runway for a group of prospects hoping to take flight.

Additionally, Flacco won’t have to shoulder the load himself. Hall and Carter are a dynamic tailback platoon capable of picking up enough early yardage to create a string of third-and-short opportunities. Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner is a plug-and-play cornerback capable of making an impact against the Ravens’ shallow pool of receiving targets. Jordan Whitehead and D.J. Reed further upgrade a significantly improved passing defense.

Are the Jets going to win this game? Probably not! Are they going to get beaten like a drum because their starting quarterback is out? That seems unlikely as well. If the money pours in on Baltimore, well, there’s gonna be some value in backing Joe Flacco to start the 2022 NFL season.