Want to Know Your Risk for Catching COVID? Check the Weather
Many of us have caught COVID-19 at this point. But when you think back to how you got it, chances are it felt a little random. The “rules of thumb” we shared about COVID spread were informed guesses at best, and are only starting to be proven out now. Take one of the big ones: The virus should peak in the winter, when colder weather makes people spend more time indoors, and rates should decline in the summer, when UV rays are the strongest and can deactivate viral particles.
This tip is a feel-true, but caseload data from summer 2020 seemed to show the opposite, as rates climbed even as temperatures peaked. Last summer did see a drop in cases, but this summer saw a slight increase compared to spring. So, what gives? A new study run by Qatari and French researchers and published Wednesday in PLoS One attempts to tease out the impact of weather on COVID-19—and its value in predicting future surges.
“Since the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, climate has provided an important reference point to explain the spread of the virus,” the researchers wrote in the study, adding that “weather forecasts could help predict new cycles of the pandemic and future outbreaks.” But climate encompasses a range of factors, so they set out to determine which ones might be most relevant to predicting the virus’ spread.