6 NFL players who need to prove everything in 2022

The future hinges on 2022 for these players.

It goes without saying that everyone in the NFL has something to prove. There are rookies trying to make an impact, players wanting to move up the depth chart, and superstars whose goal is to cement themselves in history. That said, there are unquestionably a small handful of players whose future hinges on performing in 2022, and the outcome will shape their careers.

Today we’re looking at these players — why they have the pressure on them, what the outcome is if they succeed, and ultimately what happens if they don’t step up in this “prove it” year.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Carolina Panthers

Mayfield needs a big year if he wants to continue being a starter in the NFL. His relationship with the Browns was beyond strained, with the front office losing faith in him, teammates frustrated, and Cleveland looking for an upgrade. It took six months to find a trade partner, with an on-again-off-again flirtation with the Panthers finally becoming a reality in early June, when Mayfield was sent to Carolina for peanuts.

After a six week quarterback “battle,” which everyone knew Mayfield would win, he’s now been named starter for the Panthers — and everything hinges on this season for him. Not only does Baker need to perform to prove he can still start in the NFL, but this is the final year of his rookie contract. Failure would resign Mayfield to a backup role somewhere in the league, and it’s unclear how many teams would really want Baker on their roster considering he has a history of rubbing teammates the wrong way.

There’s a definite opportunity for success here. Christian McCaffrey is returning, and he’s one of the best safety nets a quarterback could ask for, if he can remain healthy. Add in the criminally underrated D.J. Moore at wide receiver, decent depth at receiver — and a reforged offensive line built around rookie left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, and there’s a chance this team could surprise people. Nobody is going to confuse the Panthers for world-beaters, but there’s more than enough tools for a good quarterback to get the job done.

Chance he’ll “prove it”: 20%
Carolina is a decent team and there are low expectations for Mayfield, but he will need a monster season to convince either the Panthers, or another team that he remains a franchise quarterback.

Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos

The expectations for Russ in 2022 are sky high, and that pressure might be a touch unfair. Obviously the Broncos have extreme faith in Wilson, or they wouldn’t have traded the farm for him prior to the NFL Draft, now it’s on him to prove that investment was warranted.

Make no mistake: Wilson is worth it. Perennially one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, we may not have even seen his ceiling yet. For years the Seahawks built their team independently from Russ. He was expected to just fit with whatever the front office wanted, and he was able to because of his talent — but in Denver we have a team making him the focal point, building the offense tailored specifically to Wilson’s ability.

On paper this should be a monster year. Cortland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are an incredible receiving tandem who should feast this season. Denver’s offensive line is rock solid. Throw in running back Javonte Williams, who is an underrated receiving threat out of the backfield and this might be the most talented offensive grouping Russ has had since ... ever.

Chance he’ll “prove it”: 50%
This is no slight on Russ, but rather a symptom of mammoth expectations. Anything short of a deep playoff run would be considered a failure for this team — and that might be rushing the process. It took Peyton Manning a year to adjust to playing in Denver before winning a Super Bowl, and the same could take place here.

Allen Robinson II, WR, Los Angeles Rams

The fact Robinson has had success is remarkable in his own right. Here’s a receiver who has never played with a good quarterback at any point in his career, and he still has three 1,000 yard seasons to his name — as well as the Bears record for most receptions and receiving yards in a playoff game.

Despite having a poor 2021 independent of Robinson’s injury, the Rams had maximal faith — signing him to a three year, $46.5M contract. It paid him like a top receiver, with Cooper Kupp helping advocate for Robinson to become the team’s No. 2.

This is obviously a colossal upgrade for Robinson, who leaves a Bears team trying to build around Justin Fields, and immediately lands on the Super Bowl champions, who have a very real chance to go back-to-back. If Robinson can return to form he could very well be the difference maker that gets Los Angeles over the top — again.

Chance he’ll “prove it”: 75%
I’m bullish on Robinson this season. Regardless of how you feel about how he left Chicago, this is still a very good player who has produced by results with bad players. With an increased defensive focus on Kupp this season, I think Robinson can benefit and easily become a 1,000 yard player again.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s impossible to overstate just how heralded Lawrence was when he entered the league. This was the most pomp and circumstance for an incoming QB since Andrew Luck, with there being complete, unabashed faith in him being hugely successful from the jump. That didn’t materialize.

Yes, Trevor Lawrence was bad ... really bad in year one. When you throw 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions it’s not a sign of greatness. It also wasn’t all his fault, which is a common refrain with Jaguars’ quarterbacks. The team has a bad offensive line, he didn’t have any weapons at receiver outside of Marvin Jones, and his new running back handcuff, Travis Etienne — whom he played with at Clemson, was injured in preseason.

In year two the excuses are gone. Jacksonville spent huge money in free agency to bring Christian Kirk from the Cardinals, the brought in Zay Jones from the Raiders, Evan Engram from the Giants — and revamped the offensive line. All this, paired with the return of Etienne, means there’s no excuse for Lawrence to fail again in year two.

Chance he’ll “prove it”: 65%
I’m a little more confident that Lawrence will bounce back, than he won’t. I still think the Jaguars should have swung for the fences and hire Byron Leftwich, but Doug Pederson is a fine, reliable coach who will put Lawrence in a position to succeed. We’re not looking for a blockbuster, playoff season from Jacksonville — but improvement. The AFC South is wide open, and it would be a huge shame if this team finishes in the cellar again.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns

We cannot ignore the grotesque acts committed by Watson that led to his 10 game suspension and his fine. It’s woven into the fabric of this season, and the remainder of his career. Anything less than remembering, and reminding people at every turn that he harassed and assaulted over 20 women does a huge disservice to the women affected.

In terms of on-field performance, Watson has a metric ton to prove when he returns to the gridiron. The Browns went all-in on him, not only trading away their entire future in draft capital, and giving up so much future cap space, but staking their reputations on his performance. Anything less than a playoff-caliber run would be a disaster for this team.

I say “playoff-caliber,” because really it’s on Jacoby Brissett to steady the ship for 10 games, which he can do, but it might not be enough to guarantee a playoff run this year.

Chance he’ll “prove it”: 20%
Watson has been away from football for such a long time that it will be very difficult for him to succeed immediately. There will be growing pains, there will be huge criticism, and Watson being a distraction won’t end when he returns to the field. This is a recipe for disappointment in 2022, even if he returns to being the player Cleveland hopes in the future.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

It feels like a million years since Tua was one of the most anticipated players to enter the NFL from college football. The growing pains have been exceedingly rough, and it hasn’t all been Tagovailoa’s fault. In his rookie season he was met with doubt when the team floundered around with Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he still hasn’t really recovered.

This is a functionally fine quarterback, but he has failed to make impact plays in a league defined by impact plays at quarterback. Moving the chains isn’t good enough anymore, and now with a new head coach the pressure will be on Tua to prove he can be a long-term option this year, and with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki there’s zero excuse for him not to have a big year.

However, if Tua proves to be his same old self it’s difficult to imagine the team will wait for him to develop much longer. 2023 is a QB-rich draft full of big players, and Mike McDaniel will likely look to find his own guy if Tagovailoa can’t hack it.

Chance he’ll “prove it”: 30%
You have to be a card-carrying member of “TuAnon” to have endless faith in the quarterback. I just don’t know if he has the arm, or the mechanics to mitigate his arm in order to push the ball downfield as is required in the NFL. This is no longer a league where you can wait 3-4 years for a quarterback, and if a team like the Ravens are faffing around with Lamar Jackson, it’s hard to imagine Tua will garner that faith.