Forget the F-150 Lightning and Hummer EV. Ford and GM's real battle is for electric delivery vans.

• Ford and GM are going head to head with electric vehicles for mainstream buyers.
• But perhaps their real battle will happen with electric delivery vans.
• The two made news this week — and are racing to snatch up more market share.

As Ford and GM go head to head in the multi-billion-dollar pivot to electric propulsion, the balance of their rivalry may not hinge on high-profile rides like the F-150 Lightning and Hummer EV, but on the humble delivery van. 

While adoption in the consumer market creeps upward, the commercial space could be a surer bet in the near term, industry experts say.

"Public attention tends to focus quite a bit on the passenger vehicle market," said Ryan Gallentine, electrifying transportation policy director at Advanced Energy Economy. "But the electrification of the commercial vehicle market," he said, "I think is underappreciated."

Ford and GM know that, and they're racing to answer the growing demand from retail, ecommerce, and delivery giants looking to electrify their massive fleets. That demand could produce a $370 billion commercial EV market opportunity by 2030, per Guidehouse Insights. 

This past week, both automakers made commercial EV announcements — Ford with its delivery unit Ford Pro, and GM with its first- and last-mile and fulfillment subsidiary, BrightDrop. The moves further the companies' ambitions to lead in an increasingly promising — and pivotal — delivery space. 

That's driven these companies to pick up the pace. "BrightDrop was the fastest vehicle we produced in the history of GM," GM's SVP of strategy and innovation Alan Wexler said in a Barclays conference this month.

The stakes are high

"It's not surprising that this first-mile, last-mile is a growth sector for auto manufacturers," said Gallentine. "Obviously, the policy drivers here are big."

The commercial space has successfully combated many roadblocks to electrification, like fleet management, infrastructure, and cost of ownership. Now, government support through incentives has bolstered EV momentum, and as a result, companies looking for electric fleets will only ask for more.

BrightDrop has already snagged some of the biggest customers in the space, with 25,000 collective orders from FedEx, Walmart, and Merchants Fleet. It's bolstering its business with software and predicting $5 billion in revenue by 2025. 

Ford Pro's progress has also been steady, and the company is bullish. "In the commercial business, we have the front-row seat," the division's CEO Ted Cannis said at a JPMorgan conference in August.

Ford and GM can't just battle each other for this market. Other target customers, like UPS and Amazon, have deals with startups Arrival and Rivian, respectively, but their fleets will require multiple vehicle suppliers, and hundreds of other fleets are yet to be claimed.

"There are several startups playing in this space," Gallentine said. "It's, who's going to be fastest to market? Who's going to be able to get those business contracts signed soon enough?"

How electric delivery van-makers plan to nail this down

Ford and GM's inherent advantages over rivals include name recognition, robust supply bases, and ample resources. 

"We've seen over the decades how strong brand loyalty is in the commercial vehicle segment," said AutoPacific analyst Robby DeGraff. "Operators with fleets of older Ford E-Series vans have in recent years upgraded to the Transit, and are likely going to further upgrade to the electric E-Transit."

"If an operator, say, a catering business, has found great success with its dozen gas-powered Chevrolet Express vans, I'd expect them to be far more interested in replacing them with a crop of new products from BrightDrop." 

But, DeGraff noted, this kind of shift can shake one's loyalty. "Commercial buyers could begin to cross-shop more than they had ever before, stepping away from their go-to choices for a rival's, especially if there's a clear advantage."