Dolphins-Chargers DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis
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Tyreek Hill has the highest optimal projection on this DFS Showdown slate between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers. It doesn’t need to be elaborated that Hill has been the best receiver in football, or at least the most productive. Ranking first in receptions and yardage, his ceiling is immense, as he’s eclipsed 140 yards in six games. The touchdown production isn’t phenomenal, but you’re setting up for a high-floor play with upside if he were to find the endzone. He’s seeing some ownership leverage at the multiplier spot and has all the tools to turn optimal.
Justin Herbert is looking to finally have all his weapons fully healthy for an entire game, which he hasn’t seen all season. He is seeing the highest positive ownership leverage on this slate and has such a diversified offense that he could beat out his premier weapons in a shootout. Last week, nine different players were targeted by Herbert, and now we enter Mike Williams back into the fold, so we like the value of Herbert here.
Tua Tagovailoa has been thriving lately. Over the past five weeks, he’s thrown for at least 285 yards in each game with a combined 12 touchdowns. He’s capable of beating out Tyreek atop the optimal board, especially if Hill doesn’t find the endzone, and that doesn’t even include that the Chargers have a depleted defense with no answers for the Dolphins’ speed. He’s seeing the second-highest positive ownership leverage on our board, right behind Herbert, so we also like the value we’re seeing on him.
FLEX OPTIONS:Few, if any, have higher ceilings than Austin Ekeler. Given how the slate is breaking and all the mouths to feed in this offense, we like him more at the FLEX spot rather than the multiplier. This game has the makings of a potential shootout, so we don’t have the confidence in Ekeler to see enough carries to compensate for the targets’ he is losing with a fully healthy fleet of weapons. Still, we can’t ignore the upside, and the positive ownership leverage he’s seeing wins us over.
It feels like Jaylen Waddle is flying under the radar on this slate, and if we exclude last week’s slop fest in San Francisco for the Dolphins, Waddle has six 85+ yard games over his previous seven. He’s been one of the best receivers in football this season, and there is no reason to stray away from him tonight, just a matter of how you fit him in.
The Chargers’ core three receivers all are coming in over-owned in our projections, so we got to find where the best buy is among the three. Keenan Allen is coming into tonight off of a 14-target game and has found the endzone in two straight weeks, so he’ll be the safest play of the three.
Mike Williams is an absolute DFS nightmare, and who knows what we can expect from him and how healthy he truly is? His price is very desirable as he could very well obliterate the board but also could crash and burn our lineups in a hurry. Limit your exposure to Mike Williams, but you’d be remiss to fade him completely.
I’m a huge believer in Joshua Palmer personally, as he’s averaged nearly ten targets per game over the past six and has shown immense flashes, but it is hard to picture how much he’ll truly see the ball. The heart hopes he continues to dominate, but the gut says we need to wait and see on him.
The Chargers are not very good against the run, ranking fourth-worst in football in allowed rushing yards this season, but the Dolphins simply don’t want to run the ball. We favor Raheem Mostert over Jeff Wilson Jr as Mostert out-carried him 7-1 last week in a sloppy yet revenge game for Wilson. Both are coming in over-owned, given their affordability, so we would rather pay for the sure things.
Gerald Everett is over-owned like the rest of his Chargers’ pass-catching counterparts, but he has a phenomenal matchup as the Dolphins have not defended opposing tight ends well at all this season. Hopefully, he will still see 5-6, given his matchup advantage, so we’ll roll the dice, given his affordability.
Cedrick Wilson Jr. is who we’re targeting as our favorite minimally priced play, given River Cracraft’s injury. He’ll dominate the rotational receiver work for Miami, and anything is possible in a shootout. Paying up for a more solidified Trent Sherfield is also a reasonable play.
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