Marin unemployment rate ticks up to 2.5%

Marin County experienced a small increase in unemployment in November as part of a pattern throughout the state, according to data released on Friday.

Marin’s rate rose from 2.3% in October to 2.5% last month, the California Employment Development Department reported. The statewide unemployment rate increased from 4% to 4.1%.

“Pretty much every county from Humboldt down through Marin out to Solano saw a small increase,” said Randy Weaver, a labor market consultant for the department. “It just seems to be a widespread trend right now.”

The national unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%.

Marin had the fourth-lowest unemployment rate in the state for November. San Mateo County had the lowest at 2.2%, followed by San Francisco with 2.3% and Santa Clara County at 2.4%. Marin is usually among the counties with the lowest rates.

Robert Eyler, chief economist for the Marin Economic Forum, said while California’s labor force has shrunk in recent months, Marin County’s has remained relatively flat. The labor force includes both employed residents and unemployed residents who have recently sought a job.

Eyler said the unemployment rate is expected to increase at the local and national level based on macroeconomic trends such as inflation and federal interest rate increases.

“Those are going to provide more business pressures,” Eyler said. “And you’re probably going to hear this also at the national and state level over the next six or eight months that there is going to be this sort of grinding pressure to push more people out of a job.”

To what extent it will affect Marin is still unclear, Eyler said.

“The trick is how much the labor data are really telling the story of Marin County’s continued recovery and ultimately its expansion coming out of the pandemic versus maybe there’s more of a transition toward wealth coming to Marin County and potentially more self-employment,” he said.

Marin County’s labor force included 128,400 residents last month, down from 129,400 in October and 139,000 in November 2019, before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the state.

The number of jobs in Marin also shrank by 300 from October to November. Jobs in industries that were hardest hit by the pandemic, such as leisure and hospitality, retail and salons, still face a long road to recovering to pre-pandemic levels. Other sectors such as construction have returned to pre-pandemic levels, according to Weaver and Eyler.

While California’s unemployment rate had a slight bump, the state continued to add jobs for the 14th consecutive month, with 26,800 nonfarm payroll jobs added in November, according to the California Employment Development Department.

“The state also continues outpacing the nation in year-over job growth – all as millions of Californians are currently receiving the largest tax refund in history, boosting the state’s working families,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday.

November unemployment rates

Marin County: 2.5%
Statewide: 4.1%
U.S.: 3.7%

Corte Madera: 2.8%
Fairfax: 5.8%
Inverness: 6.6%
Larkspur: 1.7%
Mill Valley: 1.2%
Novato: 2.6%
Point Reyes Station: 0%
San Anselmo: 2.4%
San Rafael: 2.3%
Sausalito: 3.3%
Tamalpais/Homestead Valley: 1.6%
Tomales: 0%

Source: California Employment Development Department