2023 Outlooks for Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee

I watched at least three starts this past season for each of these pitchers and also saw all of them as amateurs. I'm sharing my thoughts on where they could fit for the Guardians in 2023 based on my views.

Daniel Espino - The FB (95-99 mph) and SL (plus MLB pitch today) combination is excellent, and he can command both pitches reasonably well. He only pitched in April but he looked like he could have been in MLB as a reliever later in 2022 if he used just those two pitches. The Guardians want to develop him as a SP and he's got a good CB and I've seen a CH with potential too, its just he wasn't as effective commanding those pitches the way he needs to be to go through MLB orders multiple times. That is typical with young pitchers as those pitches are often last to come. I'm not sure the status on his health and he also missed valuable time he needed to work on his CB and CH in game situations. This puts him behind for 2023 as a SP, but as long as he's healthy he definitely could be a one time through the order pitcher in MLB and be good next year. I saw Espino as a high school pitcher at Wrigley Field years ago and he's made a lot of necessary improvements since then, so maybe he's improving behind the scenes while getting healthy but I think the lack of game experience in 2022 is going to set him back as it relates to 2023 impact if he's going to be a SP. Cleveland needs to develop him as a SP and I hope the resist the urge to use him in relief early in his career.

Gavin Williams - He has Gerrit Cole type of potential, as a big, strong RHP that pumps FB's in the upper 90's with command. One of his starts with Lake County early in the season he hit 100 mph and pitched a game that would have translated to a quality start in MLB. He looked like a future FOR SP. I think he has a quality CB, SL and CH that he's used in games effectively (his CH surprised me with its quality), but the breaking pitches aren't Espino type quality and I think at times he was inconsistent executing with them in Double-A too often. Cleveland has valued pitchers that can command breaking pitches consistently and I didn't see enough of it with Williams in 2022. Since Williams doesn't have the SL of death Espino has, he needs to be able to throw his CB with good command to get MLB batters out on 2-2 counts (for example) and he wasn't there last year. Williams is the quintessential MLB SP with his upside so not a guy I'd mess around with trying in relief. I saw Williams as a sophomore at East Carolina as a reliever and he's made very large improvements since then, so his ability to improve in areas is there but I think the Guardians should expect 2023 to be a development year for him as a SP.

Tanner Bibee - He's 6'1"-6'2", 210 lbs and just not as impressive physically so ranks lower than guys like Williams. As an amateur at Cal State Fullerton, he was an unimpressive as an average sized RHP throwing low 90s but had good breaking balls (the perfect Guardians college draft prospect in the 3rd to 5th rounds). As a pro he's made some delivery improvements and is now sitting regularly at 94-95 mph in games (I saw him top at 97-98), which is massive for him b/c its tough being an undersized RHP throwing low 90s. The big thing with Bibee is he throws his offspeed pitches with command very well for a pitcher his age, and his CB, SL and CH are all MLB quality pitches. Bibee can *consistently* pitch to a scouting report addressing batters' weaknesses better than Williams can at this stage in his career, and I think Cleveland values this. Now that he's throwing mid 90s consistently it's a different conversation about how he fits as a MLB starter than when he was a 90-92 mph, 5th round guy out of college. I believe Bibee has the best chance of the top 3 pitching prospects as making an impact as a SP in 2023. If Bibee builds modestly on his 2022 success in spring training, a case could be made for him getting a rotation spot in early '23 but I expect him to be in Columbus to start the year. I think he'd be the first call-up if a starter is needed. I was impressed with him when I saw him last year and think he needs to be taken seriously.

I believe Tanner Bibee is underrated by most. I understand why he doesn't get the most attention, but I think the Guardians are secretly excited about him. I didn't include Logan Allen in this b/c I think he's at the same level as Espino, Williams and Bibee.