Big Tech predictions for 2023: A rival for Twitter, Amazon deceleration, Google's AI wake-up call, Microsoft's serious game, cloud bills, and DTC decline

• The era of unfettered technology abundance ended in 2022.
• The painful adjustments will ripple across the industry in 2023.
• Insider's Big Tech reporters share what to watch this coming year.

A decade of technology abundance ended this year, and the painful adjustments will ripple across the industry in 2023.

Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter encapsulates the broader situation. At $44 billion, the debt-fueled deal was completed quickly at valuations from the frothy tech bull market of 2021. The economic downturn kicked in soon after, and Musk has been cutting jobs and eliminating expensive projects and features to keep his social-media company afloat.

Bigger tech companies are sturdier and still wildly profitable, but they are having to adjust, too. Amazon and Meta have laid off thousands. Google is giving tougher performance reviews and prodding employees to be more productive. Microsoft cut some jobs. Apple is the only industry giant to be relatively immune so far. We'll see how long that lasts in 2023.  

Insider's Big Tech reporters will be working hard to chronicle the industry fairly, and we won't shy away from uncovering wrongdoing and missteps when they inevitably happen. Here are their thoughts on what to watch in 2023. Reach out and let us know what you think. Check out this Insider guide on how to get in contact securely.

Kali Hays, social-media reporter

The slow breakdown of Twitter under Musk appears to be upon us. It's a lot of porn, verified bots (oh, excuse me, Twitter Blue subscribers), glitching or disappearing features, and constant attention grabbing by Musk. People are still on the platform, of course, and will continue to be for a while. Some have spent a decade building a presence or personal brand on the platform. But it feels like most are ready for a good replacement to show up.

There are already options. Mastodon has experienced a major influx of users, hitting more than 5 million accounts after Musk took over Twitter. Then there's Hive, which has 1.5 million users, and True, an ad-free, privacy-focused service. Post is the newest offering and seemingly the closest to Twitter in terms of functionality. It rushed its beta launch so it could be part of whatever Twitter exodus comes to pass. It has more than 300,000 users, and over 600,000 on a wait list.

None of these apps are perfect replacements, and none have reached the number of users that it would take to blow up and give Twitter a run for its money.

Twitter had 100 million daily active users when it went public and has about 245 million now. With intense tech antitrust scrutiny, these new services are unlikely to be gobbled up by Big Tech. With a real chance to grow and people eager to try something else, 2023 could be the perfect time for a new platform to break out big.

Contact Kali Hays at khays@insider.com or through the secure-messaging app Signal at 949-280-0267. Reach out using a nonwork device. Twitter DM at @hayskali. (With all these reporters, reach out using a nonwork device.)

Ashley Stewart, Microsoft reporter

Microsoft's first big fight of 2023 will be seeking regulatory approval to acquire the video-game company Activision Blizzard for $69 billion, which would make it the biggest tech deal in history. The decision will set a major precedent for mergers and acquisitions across the industry, Dan Ives, a Wedbush analyst, said.

The Federal Trade Commission sued to block the deal, saying it would hurt competition by keeping blockbuster gaming franchises like "Call of Duty" from Microsoft's Xbox competitors. Microsoft's president, Brad Smith, recently said the company was willing to compromise, offering to make "Call of Duty" available on rival consoles for the next decade.

The deal would make Microsoft the third-largest video-game company and put its nascent cloud-gaming service in a strong position. Ives said he believed Microsoft would prevail in its battle with the FTC.

Reach out to Ashley Stewart via email (astewart@insider.com), or send a secure message from a nonwork device via Signal (+1-425-344-8242).

Ellen Thomas, cloud reporter

2023 should be a good year for startups that focus on reducing cloud bills, including Cirrus Nexus, Yotascale, Ternary, and Cast AI.

The cloud was supposed to be the ultimate cost saver, but big companies that have made the move have learned that the cost of renting storage, computing power, and other services can add up.

Rattled by the uncertain economic environment, chief financial officers are scrutinizing expensive cloud bills — some, perhaps, for the first time ever — as they look to cut costs across the board. In 2023, this could be a boon for FinOps and the growing cottage industry of startups promising to help cloud customers reduce and manage cloud spending.

Contact Ellen Thomas via email (ethomas@insider.com), or send a secure message from a nonwork device via Signal (+1-646-847-9416).

Eugene Kim, Amazon reporter

Expect more deceleration for Amazon in 2023. Amazon's three main pillars — retail, Amazon Web Services, and Prime — are experiencing slowdowns as the economy struggles.

Some of the shoppers who joined Amazon earlier in the pandemic are returning to physical stores, hurting Amazon's retail growth. AWS customers are scrambling to save on their cloud bills to cut costs. And the Prime membership program is nearing saturation in the US, Amazon's biggest market. Amazon's own economists seem to agree: A recent internal projection showed Amazon's growth typically stalled when it focused on cost cuts and profitability, like the company is doing now.

Contact Eugene Kim on a nonwork device via the encrypted-messaging apps Signal/Telegram (1-650-942-3061) or email (ekim@insider.com or ekim@businessinsider.com).

Hugh Langley, Alphabet reporter

ChatGPT and DALL-E might not pose an immediate threat to Google's business, or our own creativity, but the level of buzz they've generated this year proves that so-called generative artificial intelligence has reached a milestone.

In 2023, expect to see tech companies prove they have the tools to create as, if not more, impressive applications and demos of the AI they're already working on. Early-stage investors will sink even more money into startups specializing in generative AI as the hype around other technologies, such as crypto, fades. There'll be more conversations around guardrails and responsible AI, too, as industries from education to journalism grapple with the implications of these powerful tools as they fall into the hands of millions of users.

Hugh Langley can be contacted via encrypted email (hlangley@protonmail.com) or the encrypted-messaging apps Signal/Telegram (+1 628-228-1836). 

Madeline Stone, e-commerce reporter

The traditional direct-to-consumer playbook — building a business by cutting out the retail intermediaries — will likely fizzle in 2023.

Online sellers are facing a slew of challenges, from data-privacy changes to inflation and supply-chain disruption. That means they'll have to approach e-commerce in new ways with technologies like AI and machine learning. Online marketplaces may thrive again as they give brands exposure to prospective customers.

You can reach Madeline Stone at mstone@insider.com or on the secure-messaging app Signal at (646) 889-2143 using a nonwork phone.