These 2023 elections could decide the direction of the country before the presidential primaries begin

On Wednesday, writing for Vox, political reporter Ben Jacobs previewed how major upcoming elections in 2023 could have significant impacts around the country — long before anyone casts a vote in the presidential primaries.

"2023 will be jam-packed with showcases of American democracy as voters in a handful of states cast their ballots in key races that will have far-reaching consequences," wrote Jacobs. "There may not be as many elections in an odd-numbered year as an even-numbered one, but not to worry — there will still be a heavy serving of punditry and almost as many negative ads."

First, there are the three gubernatorial elections. In Kentucky, Democratic incumbent Andy Beshear will be defending his seat. "The top Republican candidate is state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. If elected, Cameron, a Mitch McConnell protégé, would be the first African American Republican elected governor of any state since Reconstruction," wrote Jacobs. "Although Cameron received a Trump endorsement earlier this year, it is unclear what the notoriously fickle former president might do on his behalf. Two other Republican statewide elected officials are running for governor: state auditor Mike Harmon and state agriculture commissioner Ryan Quarles. Former Trump UN Ambassador Kelly Craft, whose husband is a billionaire coal executive, is also running."

Similarly, in Louisiana, Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is termed out, giving Republicans an even stronger chance at flipping a seat — but "the state’s 'jungle primary' law does give Democrats a puncher’s chance. All candidates, regardless of party, face off in an October primary, and the top two advance to a runoff in November if no single candidate wins 50 percent of the vote." And there is Mississippi, where Democrats are severe underdogs, but where incumbent Republican Tate Reeves is severely unpopular and at risk in a primary due to a welfare fraud scandal in which his administration diverted funds for poor families to build a volleyball stadium for NFL veteran Brett Favre's daughter.

In addition, there are the Virginia legislative elections, wrote Jacobs: "The results will be a major test of whether Republican Glenn Youngkin’s win in the 2021 gubernatorial race was a fluke, or Virginia is still somewhat of a purple state ... With Youngkin also looming as a potential national candidate, the results of the legislative races will be a key test of his popularity at home." And in Wisconsin, Democrats have a chance to flip an open state Supreme Court seat, which would give them a majority on the body just as they hear a number of critical election cases.

Lastly, wrote Jacobs, there is the matter of special elections, which could make a difference in an extremely narrow House majority Republicans can only afford to lose four seats in. "Politicians die (seven did in the 117th Congress), get indicted, or simply get bored with their jobs ... There is already one scheduled in a safe Democratic seat in Virginia in February to replace Rep. Don McEachin, who died in November, and we have no idea what else is coming. But, with such narrow margins on Capitol Hill, they could carry extra high stakes."