College Football: B1G Bets Bowl Edition (Part I)
It’s the most wonderful time of the year, and what better way to celebrate bowl season than with some B1G Bets?
Overall Record: 47-30-1 overall (+15 units) | ATS: 26-17-1 | Team Totals: 21-13
Onto this week’s picks. Scared money, don’t make money. Let’s eat!
B1GGEST Bets (2 Units):Season: 5-5 (Even)
Minnesota -9.5 Syracuse (Pinstripe Bowl)Money Line: Minnesota -360 | Syracuse +280 | Total: 41.5
Time: 2:00 p.m. ET; TV: ESPN | Location: Yankee Stadium | Bronx, NY
Syracuse: 7-5 | CFP: NR | AP: NR | Coaches: NR | SP+: 63 | PFF: 71
Minnesota: 8-4 | CFP: NR | AP: NR | Coaches: NR | SP+: 16 | PFF: 20
Minnesota’s offense is predictable and limited. They run the ball at a 61.8 percent clip, leaning on their big, physical offensive line and the rushing of Mohamed Ibrahim (1,594 yards, 19 TDs). You could almost call it a one-trick pony offense, but they’re really good at what they do.
Only Michigan had a more productive running game out of the Big Ten than the Gophers, who ranked 11th nationally, sixth among Power 5 programs, in rushing offense. It wasn’t just volume either, as P.J. Fleck’s team finished 31st in EPA/rush and 18th in rushing success rate.
This is a significant problem for a Syracuse front seven that is light in the pants. The Orange were 106th in EPA/rush defensively and 119th in defensive success rate against the run. The Gophers will pound the ACC school play after play for positive yards and wear the Orange down.
With 1,065 yards after contact, Ibrahim ranked second in FBS in that category, and I expected him to add to that in Yankee Stadium on Thursday afternoon. He knows how to make defenders miss in a phone booth and is your classic forward lean runner, getting the extra yard.
The absolute mismatch aside, I love backing P.J. Fleck in bowl games. The man knows how to get his boys ready to play. Fleck’s Gophers teams are 3-0 in bowl games and 3-0 ATS with wins of 34-10 over Georgia Tech, 31-24 as an underdog against Auburn, and 18-6 versus West Virginia last year.
Minnesota has lost a couple of defensive starters to the portal but doesn’t have any reported opt-outs, unlike Syracuse, who will be without star running back Sean Tucker and their best offensive lineman Matthew Bergeron, who are both preparing for the NFL Draft.
The Orange will also be without two critical secondary pieces, as stellar corner Duce Chestnut and safety Ja’Had Carter are in the portal. Couple that with a mid-season injury to their best player, cornerback Garrett Williams, and what was once their strength has now become a weakness.
In addition to players, the former Big East school lost their defensive coordinator Tony White, who took the same position at Nebraska.
The Gophers don’t throw often but will take shots. Freshman Athan Kaliakmanis averaged 11.0 yards per pass on his way to 319 yards through the air filling in for an injured Tanner Morgan in their season finale. Both quarterbacks will likely be available in the Bronx on Thursday.
A bully team, the Gophers were a perfect 8-0 against teams that finished with a .500 record or worse, and the Orange are 6-6. None of Minnesota’s wins came by fewer than a touchdown, with their average margin of victory 29 points. Against Power 5 foes, it was 23.7 points with a 5-1 ATS record.
Against FBS teams ranked outside of SP+’s top 50 (Cuse is 63rd), Minny is 6-0 with an average margin of 28.8 points per game.
B1GGER Bets (1 Unit):Season: 34-21-1 (+13 Units)
Syracuse UNDER 14.5Minnesota’s most significant advantage is on the defensive side, where they are ranked fifth nationally by SP+, tenth in defensive success rate, and 14th in EPA. A considerable edge over an Orange attack that’s 62nd nationally by SP+, 56th in offensive success rate, and 65th in EPA.
Presumably, without Sean Tucker, Cuse will rely more on the passing of Garrett Shrader. That is not ideal, considering they’re 67th in passing success rate (50th in rushing) and will be without their left tackle.
In nine games against teams with offenses ranked 50th or lower on SP+, the Gophers have allowed 9.4 points per game. Remember those FBS teams ranked outside of SP+’s top 50? The Gophers have allowed 30 points in six games (5.0 PPG) with a high of 13 points.
Why is that so important? Because Minnesota plays old-school complementary football. A big reason their defense has success is their offense’s ability to grind the clock, shorten the game, and keep the ball away from the opposing team.
Minnesota ranks third nationally in time of possession (35:25 per game) behind only academies Air Force and Army. Syracuse is 89th in the country. If the Orange aren’t on the field, it’s hard to score.
Note: Syracuse also lost their offensive coordinator (Robert Anae), but that’s not part of this handicap, as promoted QB Coach Jason Beck appears to be a rising star.
B1G Bets (1/2 Unit):Season: 8-4 (+2 Units)
Iowa -1.5 Kentucky (Music City Bowl)Money Line: Kentucky +102 | Iowa +122 | Total: 31
Time: noon ET; TV: ABC | Location: Nissan Stadium | Nashville, TN
Iowa: 7-5 | CFP: NR | AP: NR | Coaches: NR | SP+: 28 | PFF: 27
Kentucky: 7-5 | CFP: NR | AP: NR | Coaches: NR | SP+: 24 | PFF: 22
Neither team will have their starting quarterback on New Year’s Eve, as Kentucky’s Will Levis has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, while Iowa’s Spencer Petras had season-ending surgery. I’m going to ask this as nicely as possible. Who do you think will be missed more?
While neither passing attack lit up the scoreboard, Kentucky’s was better. Levis threw 19 TD passes to ten INTs, while Iowa’s top two quarterbacks (Alex Padilla is in the portal) combined for six TD passes to seven INTs. They ranked 119th in EPA/pass and 114th in passing success rate (I’m a bit afraid to ask); how much worse can they be?
At least presumptive starter Joey Labas should have Iowa’s top two rushers, including sensational freshman Kaleb Johnson (762 yards, 5.4 YPC), and top three pass catchers, led by tight end Sam LaPorta who is coming off an injury and a legit NFL prospect. That LaPorta is playing bodes well for Iowa’s motivation.
Iowa’s only significant missing piece is safety Kaevon Merriweather. Meanwhile, the Wildcats will not only be forced to turn to their backup QB but their fourth-string running back as 1,000-yard runner Chris Rodriguez opted out, and backup Kavosiey Smoke is in the portal.
If this game will be won on defense (the total of 31-31.5 is the lowest of any game since 2000), and it will, why not go with the better defense? A defense that is accustomed to expecting little to nothing from their offense.
UK is sixth in defensive SP+, and Iowa is No. 1. The ‘Cats are 38th in pass defense success rate, 35th in rushing defensive success rate, 20th in EPA/pass, and 40th in EPA/rush. The Hawkeyes are seventh in pass defense success rate, 17th in rushing defensive success rate, fifth in EPA/pass, and 25th in EPA/rush.
The Wildcats are good, but the Hawkeyes are great.
If not defense, special teams could sway the outcome, and again Iowa has the edge, among the best in all of college football, ranked fourth by SP+, compared to Kentucky, which is 73rd. Punter Tory Taylor is a star, and kicker Drew Stevens has made 16 of 18 field goal tries, including both of his attempts from 50-plus yards. They’ve blocked three punts while return specialists Kaleb Johnson (25.0 average on kick returns) and Cooper DeJean (17.6 average on punt returns) can go the distance.
Low scoring, expected close games are Iowa’s bread and butter. They are 8-2-1 ATS when the spread has been between -3 and +3 since 2020.
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