Oscar predictions: 4-way race for Best Cinematography pits ‘The Fabelmans’ against ‘Top Gun,’ ‘Avatar’ and ‘Babylon’

The combined predictions of Gold Derby users point to a close Oscars battle for Best Cinematography: “The Fabelmans” vs. “Top Gun: Maverick” at the top of the odds with “Avatar: The Way of Water” and “Babylon” close behind. Every one of their associated cinematographers is a past Oscar winner, so if we’re right we’re going to see someone repeat when the awards are handed out. But who will it be?

The Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets give the slight edge to “Maverick” DP Claudio Miranda, who previously won Best Cinematography 10 years ago for “Life of Pi.” Eight of them are betting on the sky-high sequel to win compared to six who say “Fabelmans,” three who pick “Avatar,” and one who says “Babylon.” The Editors who cover awards year-round for Gold Derby also lean slightly towards “Maverick.”

But the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Oscar nominations have “Avatar” DP Russell Carpenter winning; he previously won Best Cinematography on his only previous nomination, for a modest little film called “Titanic” (1997). Eight Top Users are predicting James Cameron‘s aquatic space opera compared to six for “Fabelmans,” five for “Maverick,” and three for “Babylon.” This might be a smart bet since the first “Avatar” won for this category 13 years ago, albeit for a different cinematographer, Mauro Fiore.

Then there are the All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine prediction results from the past two years. A leading 10 of them are backing Janusz Kaminski for “The Fabelmans.” He won his two previous Oscars for other collaborations with Steven Spielberg, “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “Saving Private Ryan” (1998). Compare that to eight All-Stars who are picking “Maverick,” two who are backing “Babylon,” and surprisingly none who favor “Avatar” for the win.

That leaves “Babylon,” which doesn’t have majority support from any of our prediction blocs but must be taken seriously because lenser Linus Sandgren won an Oscar for Best Cinematography the most recently out of the four. He prevailed for “La La Land” just six years ago. But what’s especially interesting about all four of these artists is that every film they previously won for also claimed the Oscar for Best Director, which goes to show just how much a cinematographer’s visual style contributes to a filmmaker’s vision.

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