Oscar predictions: ‘All the Beauty and the Bloodshed’ and ‘All That Breathes’ face off for Best Documentary

On December 21 the Oscars released their shortlists in 10 categories. That included the final 15 contenders for Best Documentary Feature. Since then well over 1,000 Gold Derby users have already made their predictions, and according to their forecasts it’s shaping up to be a two-way race between “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” and “All That Breathes.”

“All the Beauty” has taken the early lead with odds of 4/1. The film explores the career of photographer Nan Goldin and her efforts to take down Purdue Pharma and the Sackler family for their role in creating the opioid epidemic. It has already received Best Documentary honors from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and the New York Film Critics Circle, among other plaudits. Now it’s backed by four Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets (with more Experts chiming in as we get closer to Oscar nominations). It’s also predicted to win by most of the Top 24 Users who got the highest prediction scores last year and most of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine predictions from the last two years (more of those two elite groups will weigh in as well in the coming weeks).

But “All That Breathes” poses a major threat. That film, about a pair of Indian brothers who care for black kites whose population suffers from the pollution in the air above New Delhi, is already used to winning. It took top documentary honors at both the Sundance and Cannes Film Festivals. It also won Best Documentary when it went head-to-head with “All the Beauty” at the Gotham Awards. And it earned a nomination from the Producers Guild, which snubbed “All the Beauty.” Despite that it ranks second in our predictions with 9/2 odds and support from two Experts and none of our Top Users. Might we be underestimating the film?

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