Focus on Raiders: Derek Carr enters 49ers game with uncertain future

Derek Carr has been the Raiders’ starting quarterback since 2014 and has been run through the rumor mill in just about every season since 2017.

In every instance, it was all chatter and no substance. Carr in top form is a top-12 quarterback and sometimes better.

For the first time, with the Raiders staggering into their Week 17 home game at Allegiant Stadium Sunday with a 6-9 record against the streaking 49ers (11-4), Carr’s future with the Raiders isn’t secure.

Terms of Carr’s contract will make coach Josh McDaniels, general manager Dave Ziegler and owner Mark Davis think long and hard about bringing him back for a 10th season in silver and black.

The $121 million extension Carr signed last offseason was a team-friendly deal with a lot of fluff. If Carr is still on the roster three days after the Super Bowl, he’ll be guaranteed more than $40 million in 2023-24.

If Carr were to be injured in the last two games, the Raiders could be on the hook for all that money. When asked about shutting him down Monday, McDaniels sidestepped the question by saying there are things to take into account for the entire roster, not just Carr.

But it wasn’t exactly an endorsement of Carr going forward and if Jarrett Stidham starts against the 49ers, we have our answer.

If the Raiders had made the playoffs this year as planned, everyone would have been happy. Instead, the Raiders, coming off a surprising wild card berth, have been competitive enough to play teams close and bad enough to sustain some staggeringly embarrassing losses.

Carr has long been a polarizing figure, and those in his corner look directly at another Raiders defense that can’t stop anyone when it matters. They have lost five times in games having a lead of seven or more points by halftime, and if you think Carr can be absolved of that, you haven’t been paying attention.

He lost tight end Darren Waller and slot receiver Hunter Renfrow for large chunks of the season, but not many quarterbacks have had consistent producers such as Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs at their disposal.

It’s apparent Carr hasn’t adapted to the McDaniels system after having a lot of freedom under Jon Gruden and every other coach and coordinator the Raiders have had since 2014.

Carr has always struggled in the red zone and his 14 interceptions lead the NFL after having 14 picks a year ago. That’s 28 interceptions in his last 32 games including nine in the last five games. And while it’s true some of those interceptions have glanced off receivers’ hands, it’s also true that in some instances better ball placement could have prevented that.

If Carr had produced in crunch time, the collapse against high school coach Jeff Saturday and the Colts could have been avoided in a 25-20 loss. Same with a 17-16 loss to the Rams when Baker Mayfield outplayed Carr with two days of prep.

The Raiders could survey the landscape and determine they’d rather stick with the quarterback they know, figuring Carr’s salary is the going rate for a veteran starter while searching for an eventual successor.

There’s also the possibility Carr could walk away, and he’s said more than once he would retire before he played for anyone other than the Raiders. He’s been preparing to be a preacher for years and almost retired as a rookie before ever taking a snap in a temporary crisis of conscience before determining he could do God’s work later in life.

The last time Carr played the 49ers was on Nov. 1, 2018 in the Thursday Night Massacre at Levi’s. The Raiders under Gruden were drubbed 34-3 by a bad 49ers team with Nick Mullens playing a near-perfect game against an Oakland team that had just dealt Amari Cooper.

The Raiders are much better than that edition, and the 49ers are light years better than their 2018 version as well.

As for Carr, whose career record sits at 63-79, his state of limbo is very real as opposed to the mindless speculation of past years.

GAME ESSENTIALS: Sunday at 1:05 p.m. (Fox) at Allegiant Stadium. ODDS: 49ers (-6).

THREE REASONS FOR 49ERS OPTIMISM

Still in the hunt

If the 49ers win out against the Raiders and Arizona (4-11) and the Vikings (12-3) lose on the road against either Green Bay (7-8) or Chicago (3-12), they move up to the No. 2 seed and are guaranteed two home playoff games. That’s a big deal.

Philadelphia (13-2) would have to lose to both New Orleans (6-9) and the New York Giants (8-6-1) to surrender the No. 1 seed to the 49ers. While that doesn’t seem likely, the condition of quarterback Jalen Hurts’ throwing shoulder remains a mystery and they’ve lost valuable right tackle Lane Johnson.

Purdy power

Given the quality of opposing defenses, there is every chance rookie quarterback Brock Purdy can finish strong against the Raiders and Cardinals considering what he’s already done against Miami, Tampa Bay, Seattle and Washington.

Plus, Purdy just had a birthday Tuesday. He’s a wise old man at age 23 now.

Getting healthier means a good vibe

It’s been this way for a while now, but the news was again positive coming out of the win over Washington. Javon Kinlaw played 16 snaps and could be a factor the rest of the way. Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell could begin practicing but likely wouldn’t see action until the finale. Jimmy Garoppolo is out of his cast.

It would be hard for the 49ers to feel better about themselves both physically and mentally going into a playoff push, while the Raiders are playing out the string. Again.

THREE REASONS FOR 49ERS PESSIMISM

The law of averages

One of these games, doesn’t it figure that the Raiders would get off to a good start and then finally manage to hold on to a lead?

It’s not like the Raiders don’t have talent. Assuming Carr plays, he can sling with anyone and with Waller and Renfrow around to join Jacobs and Adams, 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans shouldn’t take the Raiders lightly.

Madd Maxx

Edge rusher Maxx Crosby will be a man possessed with Nick Bosa getting all the attention on the other side.

Crosby, truth be told, is a man possessed in every game and has the ability to alter one at any point by forcing a key turnover through a sack-fumble or pressure which brings about an interception.

Laying an egg

The 49ers have been pretty buttoned up since Oct. 23 when they were blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders came within a point of the Chiefs – another one of their famous collapses this season.

If the 49ers were to be less than inspired and get upset, it would be disappointing but hardly a death knell.  Because their season didn’t truly kick into gear in 2021 until after their last loss.

POTENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAKER: WR Davante Adams

Adams was an invisible man in the loss to Pittsburgh. Carr threw to him nine times, but he caught just two passes for 15 yards. Assuming Carr isn’t taking a seat to prevent injury, he’ll go out of his way to make sure Adams (88 receptions, 1,290 yards, 12 TDs) is involved early and often against the 49ers.