We analyze whether oil price uncertainty and U.S. stock uncertainty can simultaneously provide additional information to volatility forecast of six major stock indexes. For model settings, we find not only the uncertainty information of previous day, but that of previous week and month will also provide incremental predictive power for the stock market volatility. Based on that, from in-sample and out-of-sample perspective, the empirical evidences imply separately incorporating oil price uncertainty into the model can significantly improve the stock market volatility forecasting performance, but the improvements vanish after controlling the effects of volatility spillover from U.S. stock market while the effect of U.S. stock uncertainty is nonnegligible and sustainable for stock volatility forecasting. We confirm this finding from average and dynamic perspective. We further proceed the process in longer-horizon volatility forecasting, the evidences cannot overturn our conclusion. This conclusion implies that we should be cautious about the stock volatility predictability based on the oil price uncertainty, which further provide some important implications for researchers, regulators and investors.
Находи идеальные места для персонажей-фигурок в «Is This Seat Taken?»
Modders are trying their hardest to add an NVMe SSD to the Switch 2, which is both impressive and something I'm not going to do
The US Air Force wants to test blowing up Cybertrucks because 'it is likely the type of vehicles used by the enemy may transition to Tesla Cyber trucks'
Mafia: The Old Country получила положительные оценки в Steam
На консервном заводе в Симферополе изъяли 12 тонн небезопасного сырья
Анастасия Гридчина: В Симферополе, в стенах гостеприимного Дома дружбы народов, состоялась торжественная презентация военно-патриотических изданий, увидевших свет в 2025 году благодаря усилиям Медиацентра им. И. Гаспринского
Сергей Карякин: 7 августа на поезде из Москвы в Симферополь выехали участники специальной спортивно-образовательной программы «Шахматный лагерь Сергея Карякина», которая стартует в Международном детском центре «Артек»
Подросток на Мersedes сбил пешехода на трассе в Керчь