Andrew Vaughn Is Poised For A Breakout 2023 Campaign
While most of the White Sox roster took a step back in 2022, one player that did not was Andrew Vaughn. Vaughn now has the unenviable task of replacing a franchise icon at first base. But so did his former teammate, Jose Abreu, when he took over for Paul Konerko. Nine seasons later, a jersey retirement ceremony in Chicago awaits Abreu once he decides to hang up his cleats. With Abreu’s departure to Houston via free agency, the baton from a long line of great White Sox first basemen has been passed to Vaughn.
Luckily, the 24-year-old has all the tools necessary to join the likes of Allen, Abreu, Konerko, Thomas, and Thome. As with any young player, placing these lofty expectations on Vaughn is unfair. Players like Jose Abreu do not grow on trees. Vaughn may never pan out as the superstar the White Sox envisioned when they selected him with the third overall pick of the 2019 MLB Draft.
However, during the two-year snapshot he has provided during his brief MLB tenure, there is reason to believe that his ceiling is very high at the bare minimum. A breakout 2023 campaign is a great way to start. Here is why Vaughn is poised for a big year.
Maturity
Despite logging just 254 minor league at-bats, Vaughn was thrust into the Opening Day roster in 2021. If the lack of minor-league seasoning didn’t make things hard enough, the White Sox also asked him to learn an entirely new position in right field. Learning how to hit major league pitching is hard enough. Trying to do that while also worrying about nuances of the outfield is a recipe for disaster.
Despite the adversity, Vaughn handled himself well. He slashed .235/.349/.411 with 15 home runs and 48 RBIs. Very respectable considering the circumstances. Despite the low batting average, Vaughn hit the ball hard. His 91.1 average exit velocity ranked 42nd in MLB. His hard-hit percentage placed him in the 81st percentile.
Where Vaughn ran into trouble was right-handed pitchers. He hit .269/.383/.555 with ten doubles and eight home runs, vs. left-handed pitchers compared to .221/.277/.332 with seven homers against right-handers. This led to him platooning with Gavin Sheets near the end of the season.
During the offseason, Vaughn went to work and showed his maturity as a hitter. In 2022 he raised his batting average to .271 while leading the White Sox with 17 home runs and 76 RBIs. Mind you, the bar was set very low on an underachieving 2022 squad, but still an accomplishment nonetheless.
He also slashed .260/.309/.444 against right-handers with 16 home runs and 63 RBIs, a vast improvement from the previous year. He still crushed lefties, hitting .307 in 114 at-bats.
The California kid also reduced his strikeout rate from 21.5 percent to 17.3 percent. He actually chased more pitches in year two but cut back his whiff rate by almost four percent.
Vaughn has shown the ability to make adjustments. Right-handers are no longer his kryptonite, and he figures to improve even more in year three.
Hits The Ball Hard
Everywhere Vaughn has been, he has torn the cover off the ball. The man is a natural-born hitter.
He set a Univerity of California record with a .819 slugging percentage in 2018 and took home the USA Baseball Golden Spikes Award. He also batted .376 with 50 home runs in three seasons. In the minors, he slugged .449 with 23 extra-base hits in 55 games. He picked up right where he left off in the MLB.
Vaughn showed an ability to hit for average in 2022. But his .271 batting average wasn’t a good representation of how well he squared up the baseball.
According to Baseball Savant, his average exit velocity of 90 mph placed him in the MLB’s 82nd percentile. His hard-hit percentage was in the top ten percentile. Meanwhile, he also ranked in the league’s top half in expected batting average, slugging percentage, and xwOBA.
Vaughn has had some tough luck hitting the ball right at people. But when you constantly hit the ball hard, good things happen.
Fatigue Factor
In each of his first two seasons, Vaughn’s numbers dipped during the back end of the year. His September splits have produced his lowest batting average and OPS. His pre-All-Star Game slash line is .301/.350/.470, while his slash line after the break is .234/.285/.381.
Wear and tear on his body played a factor. His 134 games played in 2022 were the most he has ever played in a single season in his life.
Many will point to the fact that he is young and that it shouldn’t be an issue. But Vaughn was running around the outfield for most of the season, something his body was not accustomed to. Eventually, all those hours logged tracking fly balls mixed with the grind of a 162-game season take their toll.
With Abreu gone, Vaughn will now slide over to his natural position at first base. Playing a familiar position that is a lot less physically demanding should help his offensive output, especially near the end of the year.
Confidence
With two full seasons under his belt and consistent playing time at his usual position, Vaughn should be confident entering the 2023 season. He has shown that he can be an effective hitter in the MLB and with a new staff that preaches driving the baseball.
Confidence is key in a sport where you fail more often than not. There is no reason why Vaughn should not have an abundance of it.