NFL Week 18 Picks: Can Dolphins Save Season? Who Wins AFC South Title?
The final week of the NFL season is always a bit strange, and it’s safe to say we’ve never seen anything like Week 18 of the 2022 campaign.
There are a few playoff situations that will be settled in the final week of the season, but the conversation rolling into this week has obviously centered around Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin.
Hamlin’s health remains at the front of everyone’s minds, and it does sound like he’s making progress after collapsing on the field Monday night in Cincinnati.
That’s all anyone really wants to hear, but they’re going to play the games regardless this week. That’s going to be challenging for the Bills — and the Bengals, honestly — and both clubs have playoff implications not just this week but potentially with having to make up the Monday night game that was postponed.
We still don’t know for sure how that will play out, but we do have a pretty good idea that we’ll get a full week starting Saturday afternoon. And if we’ve got football games to watch, we’ve got picks to make, as NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle returned to give their best bets for the week on “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast.
You can listen to that below, but they have their against-the-spread picks for each and every Week 18 game, as well.
Before getting to the full picks, here’s how they fared last week.
Here are their Week 18 ATS picks based on consensus betting lines at the NESNBets live odds page.
SATURDAY, JAN. 7
(-9.5) Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:30 p.m. ET
Mike: Raiders. The Chiefs were in basically the same position last season and struggled in this game (on a Saturday, no less). While Vegas has nothing to play for as a team, this is another chance for Jarrett Stidham to put some good things on film, and Josh McDaniels needs all the chances he can get to prove his worth.
Ricky: Chiefs. Would it surprise anyone if Stidham just completely flops this week?
Tennessee Titans at (-6.5) Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Titans. On the wrong side of early line movement, but I think a well-prepared, motivated team — which is typical of Mike Vrabel’s squads — is enough to make up the clear talent discrepancy and at least keep this within a touchdown.
Ricky: Titans. Two teams trending in opposite directions, obviously, with Tennessee losing six straight and Jacksonville winning four in a row. But that offers value with this inflated number. The Jags might win, but the Titans, coming off resting their starters in Week 17, aren’t going to roll over.
SUNDAY, JAN. 8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-4) Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. The Bucs have spent all season trying to win games and have struggled to do so convincingly. With nothing to play for this week? Hard to see an impressive performance.
Ricky: Falcons. The Bucs are locked into the No. 4 seed. Todd Bowles indicated Tampa Bay’s starters will play, but for how long?
New England Patriots at (-7) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bills. Thankfully, it sounds like Hamlin is improving. I have no way of knowing this for sure, but I do suspect Buffalo players are able to refocus and play a representative game. That crowd is going to be an all-timer, too, and it’s going to lift the Bills to a 10-point win over a Patriots team they really outclass.
Ricky: Bills. The talent gap between these teams was apparent in Week 13. And there’s no reason to believe it’s shrunk since then, especially with a galvanized Bills squad hosting this matchup.
(-7.5) Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. Kevin O’Connell says the Vikings starters will play, and the focus will be on getting right after an embarrassing loss last week in Green Bay. The Vikings flex their muscles and roll against poor old Nathan Peterman.
Ricky: Vikings. Have you seen Nathan Peterman play quarterback in the NFL?
Baltimore Ravens at (-7) Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. Mentioned it last week, but the Ravens just play low-scoring rock fights now. They still have a shot to win the division but need a win here, and who knows where the Bengals’ headspace will be after Monday night. Seven points just feels like a few too many in this divisional showdown.
Ricky: Ravens. Trying to make sense of this game is nearly impossible, for obvious reasons. The number feels big, though, even with Baltimore’s offensive struggles sans Lamar Jackson. This is a bet on the Ravens’ defense stepping up in the moment.
Houston Texans at (-2.5) Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Mike: Colts. The Texans are so close to that No. 1 pick they can taste it.
Ricky: Texans. Even though Houston should lay down.
(-1) New York Jets at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Mike: Dolphins. The Jets are dead, and the Dolphins still have a pretty clear playoff path. The quarterback situation is tough, but just how much better is Mike White than Teddy Bridgewater or even Skylar Thompson (with a full week)? Add in some 80-degree heat and the offseason will be so close the Jets can taste it.
Ricky: Dolphins. Refuse to be scared off by Miami’s QB uncertainty for this particular matchup. If anything, it might be advantageous for ‘Fins backers, as we’re suddenly grabbing a point at home.
Carolina Panthers at (-3.5) New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m.
Mike: Panthers. It seems like the Steve Wilks run in Carolina has gone well, at least up until last week’s playoff-dashing collapse. Call it a hunch, but if the Panthers want Wilks back as permanent head coach, a statement here should help.
Ricky: Panthers. Really like the under (42), if anything. Feels like a low-scored field-goal game.
Cleveland Browns at (-3) Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. Pittsburgh is still alive in the playoff hunt, and the Browns have not looked overly impressive at pretty much any point this season.
Ricky: Browns. Credit to Mike Tomlin and the Steelers for their surprising playoff push. Pittsburgh has taken advantage of some favorable matchups down the stretch, though, making this a potential letdown spot with Cleveland’s defense playing well.
New York Giants at (-14) Philadelphia Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Giants. Anything short of the Giants resting their starters from the opening kickoff makes this line laughably high. It’s a risk I’m willing to take, as I believe Brian Daboll would be wise to at least play this thing out for a couple of quarters to stay fresh … and that might be just enough to keep it within this massive number.
Ricky: Eagles. Because taking the points feels too obvious. I don’t know.
(-7) Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. The Commanders are going back to Taylor Heinecke, and Sam Howell will come out of the bullpen, essentially treating this like a preseason game. The Cowboys hold the slightest chance of winning the division, so they should try to win, and I just don’t think Washington has enough firepower to make up the spread deficit even after the Cowboys call off the wolves.
Ricky: Cowboys. Washington’s offensive floor is way too low with Howell, a fifth-round rookie, seeing his first NFL action against a Dallas defense ranked first in pressure rate.
Los Angeles Chargers at (-2.5) Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. The assumption is the Bengals win their 1 p.m. game against the Ravens, and that locks the Chargers into the No. 5 spot, leading to the Chargers taking it easy. I guess.
Ricky: Chargers. The timing of the Ravens-Bengals game — which has implications here — complicates matters, but Los Angeles’ defense has drastically improved and Denver just isn’t any good.
Los Angeles Rams at (-6.5) Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Rams. In hindsight, the Rams had a much tougher matchup last week against an increasingly healthy Chargers team than I considered. The Seahawks, despite their impressive Week 17 performance, have been trending the wrong way. LA won’t be fooled by much here and should have a chance to establish the resurgent running game to keep this within the number.
Ricky: Rams. Yes, the Seahawks have something to play for and the Rams don’t. But that’s seemingly reflected in the line, which is too high. Keep in mind, per Action Network, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 96-59-4 (61.9%) ATS since 1990.
Arizona Cardinals at (-14) San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. Whereas a team like the Raiders can talk itself into trying to put its best foot forward one more time, the Cardinals feel like they would just like to get on with the offseason. They have so many injuries, too. Even throttling down, the Niners should roll.
Ricky: 49ers. The Cardinals might as well let J.J. Watt play quarterback in his final NFL game.
Detroit Lions at (-4.5) Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Packers. Assuming they don’t revert to early-season form at the worst possible time, this Packers defense that looks like the unit everyone expected should have its way with the Lions. Don’t forget: Green Bay allowed just 15 points the first time these teams met, in a game in which the Packers got inside the 10-yard line three times and managed just three points. Slight improvements there with the defense still performing, and the Packers should roll.
Ricky: Packers. Green Bay suddenly looks dangerous. It’s been a fun season for the Lions, but a trip to Lambeau Field to face a physical Packers team that’s peaking defensively will spell trouble for Jared Goff and Detroit.
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