What is Jim Harbaugh’s best NFL coaching fit if he leaves Michigan?

The NCAA is cracking down, and Harbaugh might be ready to bounce.

Jim Harbaugh is on the verge of embarking on one of sports’ proudest traditions: Bolting a college job when the heat is on to accept a new one in the pros. It’s built off another proud tradition: Rich people not suffering the consequences of their actions.

The University of Michigan football team is about to have its hand slapped by the NCAA, with the expectation that the program will be hit with four Level II violations stemming from exceeding practice limitations during Covid, and even meeting recruits in breach of NCAA rules during the same time. Harbaugh himself is expected to get a Level I violation — which could see the Wolverines coach fined or suspended for misleading NCAA investigators when asked about the team’s conduct leading up to the Level II violations.

This comes at a time where Harbaugh’s name is once again being linked to several jobs in the NFL. Last year it was reported that Harbaugh was close to leaving Michigan to join the Minnesota Vikings, before the Vikings ultimately decided to hire Kevin O’Connell. Now it seems even more likely that Harbaugh will leave with numerous teams reportedly being interested in hiring him, Harbaugh privately saying he’d accept an NFL head coaching job, while publicly declaring it’s his plan to return to Michigan — with the caveat “no one knows what the future holds.”

A major NCAA violation is precisely the kind of thing that could push Harbaugh out of Michigan and back to the NFL, and that’s after considering that he could have left regardless. At this point it’s safe to think that there’s an extremely good chance we’ll see Harbaugh back on an NFL sideline in 2023 — but where?

Carolina Panthers

Owner David Tepper is desperate to make a big hire and has reportedly already approached Harbaugh about his interest in the job. A formal interview won’t be conducted until after the team’s final game against New Orleans, but it seems that Carolina is ready to make this official — if Harbaugh is.

For what it’s forth, I think this would be really unfair to interim head coach Steve Wilks, who squeezed a remarkable amount of blood out of a stone this season when he took over for Matt Rhule. Wilks essentially fixed Tepper’s failure and showed what an atrocious NFL head coach Rhule was in less than a season, but all signs are pointing to the team wanting a splashy hire.

It’s a pretty attractive situation if you’re Harbaugh. Wilks showed that this team can compete and win games, regardless of its horrific QB situation. The Panthers will have a Top 10 pick, they have more draft ammunition to move up if the need arises, and the offensive line is in fairly good shape. Defensively the team is more or less set, with some minor tweaks needed, rather than a full overhaul.

Denver Broncos

Another possible landing spot for Harbaugh is Denver, where he’d be tasked with a very different kind of rebuilding job. The primary concern here is finding a way to reconcile the past with a future. This means restoring Russell Wilson’s confidence and trying to turn him back into an MVP-caliber quarterback, if it’s possible — and maximizing the talent on the roster.

Nathaniel Hackett was woefully incapable of doing anything with this team. Harbaugh would definitely be a huge step up, which is why Mile High Report is all in on the idea of spending whatever it takes to secure him as head coach.

How appealing the Denver job would be entirely hinges on whether you believe Wilson is still a top-tier NFL quarterback or not. If you don’t think he has it anymore, or if you doubt his abilities outside of Pete Carroll’s system it become a lot more difficult to imagine Harbaugh taking another stint in the NFL in this kind of situation. Denver still owes picks to Seattle in the Wilson trade and their salary cap situation isn’t great because of how much guaranteed money they owe Russ.

However, there’s definitely a scenario where Harbaugh sees the defensive talent, and thinks Russ is still the guy, and if that comes together then there’s no job which would be more attractive.

Indianapolis Colts

There’s organizational familiarity here, and we know how Jim Irsay likes to hire people who have previously been a part of the Colts in the past.

As it stands there’s really nothing concrete about Harbaugh to the Colts outside of seeing an opening and reading the tea leaves. It’s a curious fit when you think about it. Of the three potential landing spots Indianapolis is the blankest canvas. It would be a true rebuilding effort with an opportunity to really shape the team in his image, and he’d likely get a lot of rope by choosing the Colts.

This is an important angle because of how ego plays into this. Harbaugh has no shortage of it, and he loves getting acknowledgment for his successes. In Indianapolis he’d be put on a pedestal and celebrated, which when paired with how much opportunity there is to make the Colts his own, could be enough to lure him to Indy.

So, where does Harbaugh end up?

Whatever happens with the NCAA seems central to this. If the penalties for both the school and Harbaugh are small, then it’s entirely possible he’ll stay with the Wolverines. However, if he does jump to the NFL then it seems the Carolina Panthers are the most logical landing spot.

The fact Harbaugh has even discussed the job with David Tepper is big. This is also an owner who has no problem throwing money at something he believes in. The combination of factors in play gives the team a great basis for Harbaugh to build off, with plenty of latitude to make his mark.

Either way, Harbaugh’s status is going to be a major story to watch this offseason — whether it changes the complexion of college football, or the NFL.