NFL Odds: Justin Jefferson, Mac Jones Among Players To Target For Props
Not only is Week 18 full of playoff implications, but several players also are fighting for key incentives.
Whether it’s a last-attempt playoff push, a performance-based contract incentive or a record-breaking achievement, here are three players to target in the prop market.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
Lions running back Jamaal Williams anytime touchdown +114
This is a big game for one of the NFL fan favorites. The veteran back will cash in on a nice $250,000 bonus with just six more rushing yards. His rushing yards prop is set at 55.5, but with the Packers as big as a five-point favorite at some shops, I’m not sure how much opportunity Detroit will have to run the ball if it is playing from behind. The prop I would target here is an anytime touchdown. All Williams needs is one touchdown to tie all-time great Barry Sanders’ team record. Ahead of the matchup, Williams said, “I’m coming for you Barry,” so he’s well aware of the milestone. Williams sneakily has scored more touchdowns than any player in the NFL this season (15), with the second-most red-zone touches. Bookmakers have set this game with the second-highest total on the board at 49.5 — so plenty of touchdowns are expected here. Williams might cash the Over on his yardage prop against one of the worst rushing defenses, but his touchdown prop is the best bet to make.
Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Chicago Bears
Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson Over receptions or yards
The star wideout’s props have not been posted as of Friday morning, but I would keep an eye out and hop on these numbers as soon as they open. Jefferson needs 194 yards to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season NFL receiving record of 1,964. It might seem like a high number, but it’s certainly attainable for Jefferson, who had 223 receiving yards against Detroit just a month ago. Plus, we’re talking about the best receiver in the game — leading all players in catches and yards by a comfortable margin — facing off against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Bears rank dead last in DVOA against opponents’ No. 1 wide receiver and allowed Jefferson to reel in 12 catches on 13 targets earlier this season for 154 yards. With extra motivation on his mind, expect a big game from Jefferson, even if he’s unable to catch Johnson’s record.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-7)
Patriots QB Mac Jones Over pass attempts
Jones neither has a contract-based nor record incentive, but this is a literal must-win for the Patriots if they want to make the playoffs, so that’s plenty of incentive in itself. This is going to be an emotional game, and I could see the seven-point home favorite Bills building a big lead early. Looking back to the Week 13 matchup with the Bills, the second-year quarterback completed 22 passes on 36 attempts in the 24-10 loss. Last week, his passing attempts prop opened at 31.5. Jones has had 32 or more pass attempts in five of the last six matchups (only miss came by the hook) and in eight of the 12 games this season where he played the full game (not including his benching in Week 7 against the Bears). Outside of that Bears game, he’s averaging 33 attempts a game and 34.5 over his last six games. Buffalo’s defense is one of the best in the league, but it is allowing the eighth-most pass attempts (36.2) a game, so the first-round pick out of Alabama should see plenty of volume again in this second matchup of the year.
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