Can ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ beat the odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar?

In typical awards season fashion, a category that seemed to have been thought of as sewn up may not be so clear-cut after all, which may be the case for the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar. For months, a myriad of pundits have been predicting United Artists’ “Women Talking,” directed and written by Sarah Polley and based on the novel by Miriam Toews, to triumph in this category, given the premise and intense nuanced dialogue that is the focus of the movie. But given its performance so far with awards bodies, it brings about a lot of questions in regards to what categories it will succeed in. On the other end of the spectrum, there is Netflix’s war epic “All Quiet on the Western Front,” a German-language adaptation of the 1929 novel by Erich Maria Remarque and directed by Edward Berger, that has surprised so far leading up to the nominations of both the BAFTAs and the Oscars.

Currently at Gold Derby, the Oscar racetrack odds for Best Adapted Screenplay favor “Women Talking” in first place, followed by “Glass Onion,” “The Whale,” “Living” and “She Said” in second through fifth. Just outside of our predicted nominees is “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which places sixth but is on the rise as we get closer to Oscar nominations on January 24.

“All Quiet on the Western Front” has amazed audiences ever since its debut at the Toronto International Film Festival, for its refocused loyalty to the novel, as it is the third movie remake of it. Since then, it has performed well in the international film categories, but has recently stunned with its over-performance on the shortlists for both BAFTA and the Oscars. With BAFTA, the film got 15 longlist mentions, including Film, Director, Adapted Screenplay, actors Felix Kammerer and Albrecht Schuch, and all nine technical categories, while at the Oscars, it made five shortlists for International Feature Film, Original Score, Sound, Visual Effects, and Makeup & Hairstyling.

While the shortlists don’t necessarily translate to nominations, it does indicate massive support for “All Quiet on the Western Front” in various branches and a peek into the minds of the voters. The film also has nominations from the Cinema Audio Society Awards and the Arts Directors Guild Awards, which can bode well at the Oscars for its sound and production design.

All of these mentions can only be good for its Best Picture chances at the Oscars, which if the film can actually pull off, may be a sign to come in the Adapted Screenplay category. The script is written by Berger, Ian Stokell and Lesley Paterson, all of whom unexpectedly won the same category at the National Board of Review. Time will tell with how it performs at BAFTA, which is always a telltale sign of what the Oscars may do.

So does “All Quiet on the Western Front” have enough steam to take down the category front-runner? For fans of “Women Talking,” it has been disappointing to see the film being ignored consistently at the precursors. Ever since its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, it was anticipated for nominations for Polley in directing and for its standout actors Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy and Ben Whishaw, along with Best Picture. But across the board, it has been missing those key nominations with the regional critics, the Golden Globes, DGA and PGA. The only categories it has been consistent in thus far have been Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Score for composer Hildur Guðnadóttir (both of which were also longlisted at the BAFTA along with Director and Supporting Actor for Whishaw).

But given its constant misses in the top category at various award shows, it raises eyebrows regarding winning those particular categories, specifically the former. After all, no movie has won Best Adapted Screenplay without a Best Picture correlation since 1999 for “Gods and Monsters,” which means it has never happened since the picture nominee expansion in 2010. Despite an argument that Best Adapted Screenplay may seem more barren this year in terms of nominations, some of the competition may have more support than originally perceived.

There is enough reason to believe that “Women Talking” may miss out on a Best Picture nomination come Oscar morning. Though not all hope is lost, as it did receive a SAG Award nomination for Best Ensemble, along with Polley winning Best Adapted Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards (where the movie was up for six awards) during voting for nominations; both award bodies where “All Quiet on the Western Front” was not nominated or highly featured (international films rarely are). So it becomes a question of which film will have an emergence that will determine the winner for Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars.

PREDICT the 2023 Oscar nominees through January 24

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