2023 SAG Awards TV Predictions: Best Limited Actor

The 2023 Screen Actors Guild Award nominations were announced on January 11 in film and television, as voted on by members of SAG-AFTRA. Who will prevail in the category of Best Limited Actor during Netflix’s YouTube ceremony on Sunday, February 26? This year’s five nominees are: Steve Carell (“The Patient”), Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”), Sam Elliott (“1883”), Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) and Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”).

Scroll down to see Gold Derby’s 2023 SAG Awards TV Predictions for Best Limited Actor, listed in order of their racetrack odds. Our SAG Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of thousands of readers, including Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.

SEE SAG Awards nominations: Full list in 6 movie and 9 TV categories

2023 SAG Awards TV Predictions: Best Limited Actor

Predicted Winners (in odds order)

1. Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) — 16/5 odds
Ryan Murphy‘s latest collaboration with Peters broke ratings records for Netflix when it debuted in September. The actor, who is coming off a Golden Globe victory, is at his career-best as the titular serial killer, particularly when he’s sharing scenes with fellow nominee Niecy Nash-Betts (as his suspicious neighbor) as well as Richard Jenkins (as his caring father). This marks Peters’ second career SAG Award bid after “Mare of Easttown.”
Experts predicting: Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby), Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Tim Gray (Variety)

2. Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) — 39/10 odds
After critically acclaimed roles in feature films like “Richard Jewell” and “I, Tonya,” Hauser is finally a solo SAG Award nominee thanks to “Black Bird.” (He previously contended as part of the “Da 5 Bloods” ensemble cast). Hauser undergoes a complete transformation as he takes on the real-life role of convict Lawrence “Larry” Hall, a serial killer and rapist, who is caught off guard by a friendly new inmate.
Experts predicting: Susan King (Gold Derby)

3. Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”) — 9/2 odds
Former SAG Award nominee Egerton (“Rocketman”) portrays James Keene, a rising football star who goes to prison for drugs and illegal weapons, and then becomes involved in a sting operation in which he has to obtain a confession from Hauser’s character. This Apple TV Plus entry is based on Keene’s 2010 autobiographical novel “In with the Devil: a Fallen Hero, a Serial Killer, and a Dangerous Bargain for Redemption.”
Experts predicting: None

4. Steve Carell (“The Patient”) — 9/2 odds
Carell is a three-time SAG Award winner for “The Office” cast (2007 and ’08) and the “Little Miss Sunshine” ensemble (2007). However, he’s never won a solo trophy … until now? In the FX on Hulu miniseries he plays Alan Strauss, a therapist who’s kidnapped by a serial killer, Sam Fortner (Domhnall Gleeson), who wants to use Alan’s psychiatry abilities to stop murdering helpless victims.
Experts predicting: None

5. Sam Elliott (“1883”) — 9/2 odds
This “Yellowstone” prequel stars Elliott as Shea Brennan, a Civil War veteran who’s now a member of the Pinkerton Agency. He serves as the leader of a wagon train that embarks from Tennessee and travels through Texas and Montana on its way to Oregon. The actor has yet to win a SAG Award, though he did recently reap his first two career bids (supporting actor and ensemble) for “A Star Is Born” (2018).
Experts predicting: None

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