Can Diane Warren or J. Ralph surprise at Oscars for Best Original Song (again)?

The Oscar category of Best Original Song seems to have a concrete group of four tunes anticipated to be selected as nominees for Tuesday’s announcement. They include Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award winner “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” (M.M. Keeravani and Chandrabose), plus “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” (Lady Gaga, Benjamin Rice and BloodPop), “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson and Tems), and “Ciao Papa” from “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz and Guillermo Del Toro). That leaves at least one spot potentially open for a surprise nominee. When predicting the song category, it is best to keep in mind that the music branch clearly has their favorites, and that usually tends to fill up a couple uncertain slots. This year, two of those songwriters may have a better shot at another Oscar nomination than most people think: perennial nominees Diane Warren for “Applause” from “Tell It Like A Woman,” and J. Ralph for “Dust & Ash” from the documentary “The Voice of Dust and Ash.”

After receiving an Honorary Oscar at the Governors Awards last November, Warren has an Oscar to her name and is clearly beloved among the music branch, having received 13 bids for Best Original Song, including seven out of the last eight years. Though she has yet to win a competitive Oscar, her name recognition is so large that she is often the sole nomination for a movie, such as recently for “Four Good Days,” “The Life Ahead” with Laura Pausini, “Breakthrough,” “Marshall” with Common, “The Hunting Ground” with Lady Gaga, and “Beyond the Lights.”

With this track record, it is almost risky not to predict her for “Tell It Like A Woman,”  a movie that contains seven vignettes about the power of women, directed by Taraji P. Henson, Catherine Hardwicke and Silvia Carobbio, and starring Eva Longoria, Cara Delevigne and Marcia Gay Harden. As with some of her previous mentions, Warren will likely be this movie’s only nomination. She is also an undefeated two-time Golden Globe winner for her songs from “The Life Ahead” two years ago, and “Burlesque” in 2011.

Another possible spoiler in the song category come Oscar morning could be composer and songwriter Ralph; he is up for a song from “The Voice of Dust and Ash,” directed by Mandana Biscotti, which did not make the Documentary Feature Film shortlist. Ralph has shocked many pundits in the past, landing three bids for his songs that were also the solo noms for the documentaries: “Before My Time” from “Chasing Ice” in 2013, “Manta Ray” from “Racing Extinction” in 2016 with Anohni, and “The Empty Chair” from “Jim: The James Foley Story” in 2017 with Sting.

Ralph is actively known for writing songs about social and environmental change. “The Voice of Dust and Ash” revolves around the freedom and power of music after it was banned in Iran and Maestro Mohammed–Reza Shajarian standing up to justice despite the threat of fatality, which serves a lot of relevance that could work in Ralph’s favor.

Both Ralph and Warren are clear industry favorites and could easily be name-checked by the music branch. But if both were to be nominated, there is a question of what surefire contender they may knock out.

“Naatu Naatu” seems to be the most safe with 10/3 odds and its Golden Globe and Critics Choice win, but Ralph has been known to potentially knock out a frontrunner (“See You Again” from “Furious 7” in 2016). Lady Gaga was shockingly snubbed last year for Best Actress for “House of Gucci,” despite being the only one to hit every precursor leading up to the nominations, so the same may happen for “Hold My Hand,” which is at 9/2 in third. Rihanna sits in second with 4/1 odds, but is untested at the Oscars as she has never been nominated before and sometimes they do not go for the big pop star: examples include Taylor Swift never being nominated despite four Golden Globe nominations, Beyoncé in the same boat except succeeding on her fourth try last year with “King Richard,” and Ariana Grande and Kid Cudi for “Don’t Look Up” being knocked out of a nomination last year by, you guessed it, Diane Warren. “Ciao Papa” sits in fourth with 9/2 so currently that may be the most vulnerable of the four.

As it stands, most people are factoring in history with “Applause” in 5th with 17/2, but there should be caution with Ralph as he has gotten a nomination every time he was eligible and is currently in second to last place with 100/1, which may not be wise.

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