Will Haley's 2024 launch put pressure on other GOP hopefuls?

Nikki Haley’s entrance into the 2024 Republican presidential primary could raise pressure on other prospective GOP contenders to officially jump in as the race for the White House heats up.

Haley, the former South Carolina governor, officially announced her candidacy this week, making her the second high-profile Republican to officially wade into the race and the first to challenge former President Trump. Now, all eyes are turning to other prospective Republicans to see what their next moves will be.

While some Republicans see no pressure for other candidates to enter the race sooner, others believe it might force some contenders waiting in the wings to consider changing their calculus.

“Her rollout so far exceeded expectations by all accounts,” said Alex Stroman, a former executive director of the South Carolina GOP. “I think it would actually give some pause to some people or maybe make them wait a little bit longer.” 

Haley’s entrance into what is expected to be a crowded primary field comes as other potential candidates — including former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo — work to boost their own profiles in an effort to counter former President Trump, who leads most 2024 polls. 

Some say any hesitation or delay for another Republican to get into the race could relate back to the role Trump could play as chief attack dog in the contest. 

“Maybe I actually don’t get in as soon, but I actually let her and Trump be the two in right now and kind of spar and see where this goes,” Stroman said. “But I think a lot of Republicans are so scared of the former president and are scared of the attacks that will come.” 

Others argue that it puts more pressure on other candidates to jump in as Haley gets out in front of voters in the early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. 

“I think it puts pressure on Mike Pence, quite frankly,” said Jennifer Horn, a former chair of the New Hampshire State Republican Committee and co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project. “He’s not in a strong position at all.” 

The same day that Haley was in Charleston, S.C., to make her presidential announcement in front of supporters, Pence was speaking at an event hosted by his political group Advancing American Freedom at a Pizza Ranch in Cedar Rapids, Iowa — a well-known restaurant chain in the Hawkeye State that’s hosted presidential hopefuls in past cycles.

Shortly following reports that Haley was expected to announce her presidency in mid-February, Scott announced he was launching a listening tour. Earlier this month, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) announced he had created a fundraising committee.

A source familiar told The Hill that Haley’s announcement this week didn’t change Scott’s calculus over the timeline of a possible announcement should he decide to enter and noted that her entry into the GOP presidential primary was anticipated. Scott’s recent moves weren’t tied to Haley’s campaign rollout, the person added.

Asked during an interview this week with “The Morning Answer with Joey Hudson” if there was room for two Republican presidential contenders from South Carolina, the senator said, “I bet there's room for three or four. Certainly room for two.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, asked this week if he would follow suit and announce a run for president after Haley's entry, laughed off the question and added, “Wouldn’t you like to know.”

Likewise, some Republicans pushed back on speculation that recent moves in past weeks from their party’s presidential hopefuls were tied to news around Haley entering the race.

“Let’s not ascribe to candidates this early in the race this much of a reactive posture to what everyone else is doing,” said Rob Godfrey, a former aide to Haley who is not affiliated with any presidential campaign. 

“Just as I'm sure the Haley campaign was focused on their own early plans — those early plans turned into being a very successful rollout — these other candidates are also focused on their own plans that they have in place because they want to try to have just as successful a rollout of any potential effort that they have, too.” 

However, Bob Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of the Iowa-based Family Leader, believed that the recent moves from some prospective Republican contenders were “without question” “intentional.”

“What I would say is that anybody who's an announced candidate for president like Nikki Haley, she's going to get more buzz than a listening tour or a steering committee or something else,” Vander Plaats said. “And that's why I think it's going to behoove the former vice president, former secretary of state, Sen. Scott, [Virginia] Gov. [Glenn] Youngkin, Gov. Sununu — all needs to say are you in or are you not in?”

Sitting governors like DeSantis, Sununu and Youngkin also have a unique scheduling challenge: They would likely hold off on any announcement until their states’ legislative sessions are wrapped. 

While Haley’s moves had been anticipated among Republicans, members of the party disagree about whether Haley’s campaign rollout put pressure on others to get into the race earlier. Tom Rath, a former New Hampshire attorney general, believed Haley's announcement did no such thing.

“No, I really don't,” Rath said. “I think most of these folks are pretty experienced politicians. And they’ve got people around them who are pretty good.”

While Godfrey said of candidates that the “best ones are the most disciplined ones” who are “not distracted by what other candidates are doing or working on,” he explained the calculus might still not be as cut and dry.

“It's absolutely an incredibly difficult needle to thread because candidates want to be disciplined, and stick to plans that they may have long had in place,” he said. “But they also see that she's generating a great deal of interest within her own state, which is an important early primary state, and within other early primary states. That's organic interest among voters and it's also interest among reporters who embed with these candidates and shape the coverage of the race.”

One notable caveat some Republicans point to, however, is that DeSantis could make an announcement on a White House bid as soon as late May or early June, two sources familiar told The Hill earlier this month. Some Republicans say his resounding 19-point win in November and the fact that he’s still responsible for governing his state as a reelected official does not warrant him making his announcement immediately.

“Anyone who's looking at this not named Gov. DeSantis — now their clock is ticking,” GOP strategist Colin Reed said.

“But as for Governor DeSantis, he doesn't need to announce now nor should he. He’s in the catbird seat,” he added. “He's got all the attention on him from his reelection. He's got all the name ID he wants and some.”

While Haley may be getting a head start on candidates like Pence, Scott and Pompeo, she trails behind DeSantis, who continues to be seen as the most formidable challenger to Trump. 

In a Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday, Trump led a field of hypothetical 2024 Republican primary candidates. The poll showed him receiving 42 percent support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, with DeSantis in second at 36 percent and Haley at 5 percent. 

Still, some suggest the clock may start ticking for the Florida governor soon, too. 

“DeSantis, in particular, has somehow managed to develop a relationship with Republicans across [the country] and is developing a relationship with Republican voters without getting into the race this early,” Horn said. “I don’t think he can do that for very long and expect to be taken seriously as a candidate.”