Keith Law discusses concerns with Mick Abel ahead of 2023 season
While Andrew Painter will be the most-discussed player in Philadelphia Phillies Spring Training, he won’t be alone as a top pitching prospect that will garner eyeballs in Clearwater.
Sure, Mick Abel has never quite generated Painter’s level of buzz — but as recently as last year, he wasn’t too far off. Abel was once the top pitching prospect in the Phillies’ system, only a year removed from his No. 15 overall selection in the 2020 Draft.
That No. 1 prospect mantle now belongs to Painter — which probably reflects more on Painter than it does Abel. But though 2022 wasn’t a bad year for the latter by any means, prospect guru Keith Law thinks it did illuminate some mild concerns with the 6-foot-5 right-hander.
Law, a senior baseball writer for The Athletic, noted some of those concerns in his top-20 prospect ranking and organizational report on the Phillies’ farm system earlier this month. Law expanded on his evaluation of Abel as a guest on Wednesday’s Phillies Nation Podcast.
“It is not just about strikes with him, but it’s the quality of the strikes,” Law said. “He does not really show particularly good fastball command, and it surprises me. Because I saw him as an amateur and thought, ‘Well this guy’s gonna have good command.’ It’s a great delivery. He had good stuff but already showed pretty good feel for it, and it looked like he had pretty good ability to manipulate the baseball. That hasn’t been true now in two years in the minors. And that doesn’t mean he can’t get there, but so far, it’s really not been up to expectations.”
Strike-throwing doesn’t seem to be the most glaring of concerns as it pertains to Abel, at least at this point in his career.
His 4.2 walks per nine innings in 2022 isn’t particularly low, but it was a significant improvement from his 5.4 clip in 2021, and his youth (he turns 22 in August) should only help in that regard. He also struck out nearly 11 batters per nine last year.
But Law said he heard from scouts concerned about the quality of contact against Abel’s fastball and added the pitch plays down relative to its velocity — though he noted that if Abel can become more comfortable with his changeup and pair it with his above-average slider, he can get away with it.
That changeup is the pitch Law would like to see improve the most this upcoming season. He thinks it’s likely Abel’s changeup does so in 2023, simply due to increased usage.
“That’s going to be kind of a mandate from the Phillies’ player development people,” Law said, “that ‘you need to throw this pitch more to improve your feel for it and to get used to it as a core part of your arsenal.’”
Like most draft prospects of his caliber, Abel rarely had to throw much offspeed in high school, given his mid-90s fastball that most of his competition couldn’t touch.
Both as a draft prospect and now as a Phillies prospect, Abel has always been lauded for his clean and consistent delivery. For Law, there are two sides to that coin.
On one hand, a strong delivery should correlate with strong command; that it doesn’t for Abel means a less obvious fix for any command issues. On the other hand, Abel’s delivery — coupled with his age — makes for a strong developmental foundation, which could yield improved command later down the line.
“[I’m] always a little disturbed when I look at a guy and think ‘You should have good command already, and you don’t.’ It’s not like, ‘Oh, well you just clean up this in the delivery, etc…’ His delivery’s good. I like his delivery. So it’s not really that,” Law said. “But when a guy’s got a delivery that good, it also makes me sort of hold out more hope, more optimism that the command will come at some point, maybe just with experience.”
Painter, Law’s No. 13 overall prospect and No. 3 pitching prospect, enters Spring Training with a shot — perhaps an outside shot, but a shot nonetheless — at making the Phillies’ Opening Day roster and holding a rotation spot right out of the gate. Stranger things have happened, but that kind of timeline doesn’t seem to be in the cards for Abel.
None of the above, however, should discourage Phillies fans too much on Abel’s potential. His slider is a legitimate out pitch. His fastball reaches the upper 90s. He’s only 21, and by and large, last season was a step forward for the Oregon native. (Painter is an unfair measuring stick when evaluating any prospect’s potential, anyway.)
The Phillies’ 2023 farm system is known for three promising young starters who could turn into stars in the Major Leagues. Though Painter is the headliner of the group, Abel is no small part of the equation, despite some areas for improvement this upcoming season.
MORE FROM PHILLIES NATION
- Garrett Stubbs Bat-Spiked And DJ’d His Way To Fan Favorite Status In 2022. He’s Ready For ‘New Memories’ In 2023
- Phillies 2023 Opening Day Roster Projection 1.0
- Why Draft Pick Compensation Rules Make An Aaron Nola Extension More Likely
- What Will The Phillies Lineup, With Bryce Harper Included, Look Like?
- ‘Wouldn’t Trade For Anything’: Scott Rolen Reflects On Phillies Tenure After Hall Of Fame Election
- Phillies Nuggets: The All-Random Opening Day Lineup
- Nike’s New Jersey Rule Will Almost Certainly Affect The Phillies
- Sam Fuld Says Phillies Would Be ‘Foolish‘ Not to Try To Retain Aaron Nola ‘For As Long As Possible’
- Phillies Offseason Notes: Who Could Break Camp As The 13th Pitcher?
- Opposing Coach Told Rob Thomson Playing At CBP In Postseason Was ‘Four Hours Of Hell’