Schiff, Porter take early lead in race for Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat

U.S. Representatives Adam Schiff and Katie Porter have taken an early lead in the high-profile race to replace storied Senator Dianne Feinstein when she retires in 2025. But all the candidates in the running share a common problem — many voters don’t know who they are, and likely aren’t yet paying much attention to the race.

In a recent poll focused on the upcoming 2024 election, 22% of voters favored Schiff at this early stage and 20% favored Porter, according to UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. Rep. Barbara Lee, a Democrat from the East Bay who was the last of the three official candidates to enter the race, trailed with just 6% of voters favoring her. Another 4% liked Rep. Ro Khanna, who reportedly has toyed with the idea of running but hasn’t declared his candidacy.

Though it’s still early — the race is more than a year away — the poll revealed that all the candidates have their work cut out for them when it comes to name recognition. A whopping 62% of voters said they don’t know enough about Lee to have an opinion of her, while 47% had no opinion of Porter and 39% had no opinion of Schiff.

That could be why a large proportion of voters — 39% — don’t know who they’re going to vote for.

Only Democratic voters and voters with no party preference were polled for those questions, as no Republican candidates have yet entered the race.

“The results give good reason to expect a relatively wide-open race,” Eric Schickler, co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies, said in a news release. “Since so many voters are unfamiliar with the candidates, there is much potential for movement.”

The researchers polled 7,512 registered California voters, including 5,681 Democratic voters and voters with no party preference, over a week-long period earlier this month.

Because it’s so early and none of the candidates have run for a state-wide office before, it’s not unusual that they are so little-known, Mark DiCamillo, who heads the poll, said in an interview. State representatives are typically relative nobodies outside of their own districts, he said.

“Most voters aren’t paying that close attention to politics on a day-by-day basis,” he said. “But they will. As you get closer to an election, voters will start paying more and more attention. But it will probably take a while for that to happen.”

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed Schiff earlier this month, which likely helped him clinch the top spot in the poll, DiCamillo said.

“I think those coattails really help Schiff,” he said. “Just because voters may not know that much about him, but they may know that Nancy Pelosi just endorsed him, and that may be good enough for them.”

Schiff also gained some national recognition for his leading role in former President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial.

Schiff and Porter are both Democrats from Southern California, but Porter is viewed as the more progressive of the two — and that difference already is showing up in voters’ preferences. So far, voters who identify as strongly liberal favor Porter, while those who say they are moderate favor Schiff. Lee, who also has strong progressive credential, is likely to split the strongly liberal vote with Porter.

Porter also is leading in Orange County, which she calls home.

One thing most voters can agree on — they think it’s time for Feinstein to retire. While many experts assumed the 89-year-old senator, who reportedly is experiencing a decline in her mental faculties, would not seek reelection in 2024, she didn’t confirm their assumptions until last week. As a result, both Porter and Schiff jumped into the race before Feinstein officially bowed out.

When voters were asked about her decision to step aside, 60% of Democrats, 77% of Republicans and 61% of non-partisan voters said it was a good thing for California, according to the UC Berkeley poll. And 41% of all voters polled disapprove of Feinstein’s job performance, while just 35% approve.