SAG Awards predictions: Michelle Yeoh will finally strike back against Cate Blanchett

Cate Blanchett has been winning just about everything for playing the title conductor in “TAR,” including prizes from New York, Los Angeles, and National Society film critics, so it’s fascinating to see her playing catch-up in our odds for the SAG Awards. According to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users, Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) will strike back in the race for best lead actress. If our consensus is correct about SAG, which of them will then go on to win the Oscar?

As of this writing Yeoh gets leading odds of 82/25 based on support from 11 Expert journalists, eight Gold Derby Editors, 20 of our Top 24 Users, 16 of our All-Star Top 24, and more than 1,800 of our everyday Users. Yeoh is coming into these awards having already won the Golden Globe, and “Everything Everywhere” has far more SAG support than “TAR” does — “Everything” has five noms, “TAR” has just the one. So there’s reason to believe Yeoh will also have more support in her individual category.

However, Yeoh hasn’t had much luck against Blanchett in head-to-head contests. The Golden Globes have separate acting races for different genres; Yeoh won the comedy/musical award, while Blanchett took the drama prize. When facing off in the same category, though, Blanchett won at both the Critics Choice Awards and the BAFTAs. And right now six Experts, three Editors, four of our Top 24, eight All-Stars, and more than 1,100 everyday Users think Blanchett will win again here.

Eight of the last 10 SAG Award winners in this category have gone on to win the Oscar for Best Actress, so whoever wins here is in good shape on her way to the March 12 Academy Awards. But eight out of the last 10 BAFTA winners have gone on to win the Oscar too. So if Yeoh does win SAG, one of those groups is bound to deviate from the American academy. Which will it be? In the past decade the two groups have disagreed four times, with the Oscars siding with SAG twice and the BAFTAs twice. So the Oscar race could still potentially go either way.

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