Can Barry Keoghan (‘Banshees of Inisherin’) follow his BAFTA upset with a SAG surprise?

Barry Keoghan took most of us by surprise when he won the BAFTA Award for Best Supporting Actor for his role in “The Banshees of Inisherin” as a lovelorn young man who’s abused by his father. That was the first major industry peer group to announce their winners for acting, so does that mean Keoghan will prevail again at the upcoming SAG Awards?

Out of thousands of Gold Derby users who predicted the BAFTAs, fewer than 50 anticipated Keoghan’s victory. If a “Banshees” actor were going to win that, Brendan Gleeson seemed like the likelier choice since he has a much bigger role in the film; he’s a borderline co-lead as a man who abruptly cuts ties with his friend, setting the action of the film in motion. So Keoghan’s victory was something of a coup, especially since he also defeated Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), who has been virtually unbeatable at events all season.

But Quan’s victories have come largely from media groups like Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. Those aren’t industry peer groups, so there was always a chance we’d see a stunning reversal as groups like BAFTA and SAG chimed in. That’s exactly what happened last year: Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”) had movie journalists wrapped around his finger, but the BAFTAs, SAG Awards, and Oscars went with Troy Kotsur (“CODA”).

But we’re not currently expecting Keoghan to take the SAG Award away from Quan. If anything, Keoghan is even more of an underdog here since he lacks the homefield advantage of competing at the BAFTAs with a British co-production. Almost all of our Experts are predicting Quan, as are all of our Editors, all of our Top 24 Users, and all of our All-Star Top 24. Only 23 out of more than 3,000 Gold Derby users as of this writing are forecasting Keoghan. So were the BAFTAs just a momentary bump in the road for Quan, or do you think we should be wary of another upset?

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