Today's Mortgage and Refinance Rates: February 24, 2023 | Rates Likely to Stay High as Fed Fights Inflation

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Mortgage rates increased again this week in response to comments from Federal Reserve officials indicating that the Fed's fight against inflation isn't over, and that more rate hikes are likely to come.

Rates remain elevated following the release of the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting, during which officials reiterated that more tightening would be needed to slow price growth to an acceptable level. 

The latest consumer price index report showed that inflation is still stubbornly high at 6.4% year over year. This will likely keep mortgage rates elevated for at least the next couple of months, though rates should start to trend down later this year.

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Mortgage Rate Projection for 2023

Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased over three percentage points in 2022.

But many forecasts expect rates to begin to fall later this year. In their latest forecast, Fannie Mae researchers predicted that 30-year fixed rates will trend down throughout 2023 and 2024.

But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 6.4%. This is only a small slowdown from the previous month's rate, which means the Fed is likely to continue raising the federal funds rate to slow price growth.

If the Fed acts too aggressively and engineers a recession, mortgage rates could fall further than what current forecasts expect. But rates probably won't drop to the historic lows borrowers enjoyed throughout the past couple of years.

When Will House Prices Come Down?

Home prices are starting to decline, but we likely won't see huge drops, even if there's a recession.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows that prices are still up year-over-year, though they've fallen on a monthly basis over the past few months. Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to decline 4.2% in 2023, while the MBA expects a 0.6% decrease in 2023 and a 1.2% decrease in 2024.

Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates may start to drop next year, which would remove some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely keep prices from dropping too far.

Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons

Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.

ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it's a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.

Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won't change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).

But in exchange for this stability, you'll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further in a few years, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate 

How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?

ARMs start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.

How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.

The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.

ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.

Should I Get a HELOC? Pros and Cons

If you're looking to tap into your home's equity, a HELOC might be the best way to do so right now. Unlike a cash-out refinance, you won't have to get a whole new mortgage with a new interest rate, and you'll likely get a better rate than you would with a home equity loan.

But HELOCs don't always make sense. It's important to consider the pros and cons.

HELOC pros

• Only pay interest on what you borrow
• Typically have lower rates than alternatives, including home equity loans, personal loans, and credit cards
• If you have a lot of equity, you could potentially borrow more than you could get with a personal loan

HELOC cons

• Rates are variable, meaning your monthly payments could go up
• Taking equity out of your home can be risky if property values decline or you default on the loan
• Minimum withdrawal amount may be more than you want to borrow