UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. Spann Preview & Best Bets
A top-ten light heavyweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 220 as No. 6 Nikita Krylov faces No. 8 Ryan Spann.
- Date: Saturday, February 25, 2023 | Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPN+
This bout features the most significant line discrepancy on the card, as Tatiana Suarez is a whopping -800 favorite to Montana De La Rosa‘s +520. Suarez is undefeated in her mixed martial arts career, going 8-0 overall and 5-0 in the UFC. She won The Ultimate Fighter 23 Strawweight tournament but is returning after a three-and-a-half-year layoff.
Injuries (neck, ACL) and illness (cancer) have interrupted what seemed destined to be a championship-level career. Opposite Suarez will be De La Rosa, who is 12-7 overall and 5-3-1 in the UFC. At her peak, Suarez has toyed with the UFC’s women’s strawweight division, beating Amanda Cooper, Viviane Pereira, Alexa Grasso, Carla Esparza, and Nina Ansaroff.
De La Rosa will have a two-inch height and reach advantage. Suarez should dominate this fight wherever it takes place. On the feet, Suarez averages 4.82 significant strikes landed per minute, to Monty’s 2.6, and absorbs 1.74 fewer than De La Rosa.
Suarez should also dominate the wrestling, averaging 6.47 takedowns per 15 minutes to De La Rosa’s 2.08. Monty averages 0.38 more submissions per 15 minutes, but Thabib has a 100 percent takedown defense rate.
It’s impossible to know if Suarez will return to her previous form, but if she’s anything close, she should win this fight easily. Still, we won’t be laying -800 on a fighter that hasn’t fought in over three years. When De La Rosa loses, it’s usually by decision, so Suarez by decision at +100 is probably the best wager. However, Suarez to win by KO/TKO at +410 is just too tempting.
All In For SergipanoAndre Muniz enters this bout on a nine-fight win streak, including 5-0 in the UFC. Muniz has some impressive UFC wins, especially his submission of Ronaldo Souza (one of the greatest Brazilian Jiu-jitsu competitors ever). His opponent, Brendan Allen, is on a three-fight win streak, beating Sam Alvey, Jacob Malkoun, and Krzysztof Jotko.
Allen is one inch taller, but Muniz will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage. Both fighters average just over eight minutes of fight time. Allen might have slightly more power, averaging 0.49 more knockdowns per 15 minutes. He also averages 3.99 significant strikes landed per minute to Muniz’s 1.91 but absorbs 2.56 more.
The fight will likely be decided on the ground, where Muniz should have an edge. Muniz averages 3.71 takedowns to Allen’s 1.31, and both have a comparable takedown defense rate. Sergipano also averages 0.65 more submissions per 15 minutes.
Expect Muniz to win this fight, and we’ll take him at +125 to win by submission.
UFC Light Heavyweight Main Event- Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
- Odds to Win: Krylov -178 | Spann +144
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +100 | Submission +120 | Decision +500
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +520 | No -850
This bout will most likely not go the distance. Nikita “The Miner” Krylov has only gone to the judges’ score cards four times in 38 fights, while Ryan “Superman” Spann has left it in their hands five of 28 opportunities.
Krylov is on a two-fight win streak, dominating Volkan Oezdemir and knocking out Alexander Gustafsson. Spann is also on a two-fight win streak (one KO, one submission), beating Ion Cutelaba and Dominick Reyes.
Spann will have a two-inch height and one-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. However, Krylov used to fight at heavyweight, and Spann came up from middleweight.
Of his 29 wins, Krylov has 12 knockouts, while Spann has won six of his 21 victories by knockout. Still, Superman averages 1.76 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Krylov’s 0.62. The Miner averages 4.45 significant strikes landed per minute, to Spann’s 3.42, and absorbs 0.92 fewer.
The grappling is pretty even, Krylov averages 0.65 more takedowns per 15 minutes, and both defend about 50 percent of takedowns. Spann attempts 0.52 more submissions per 15 minutes. Any edge they have over each other in grappling should be negligible.
There are a couple of tempting lines, Fight to End by Submission +120, Spann by KO/TKO +320, Spann by KO/TKO/Submission (Decision No Bet) -130, but Spann by submission at +500 is the most attractive.
UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. Spann Betting Card- Suarez by KO/TKO (+410)
- Muniz by submission (+125)
- Spann by submission (+500)
Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
The post UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. Spann Preview & Best Bets appeared first on NESN.com.