Marin businesses strive for optimism as COVID emergency order ends

As the state prepares to lift the COVID-19 state of emergency order on Tuesday, Mill Valley business owner Paige Charbonnier said the glamor business is booming.

But it’s been a long three years for Charbonnier, the co-owner of AP Luxe Salon + Blow Dry Bar. She opened the business just six months before the first state shutdown in March 2020.

“Not only did we have the cost of day-to-day, but we had construction costs to deal with,” she said. “And there’s only so much money you can make off a haircut.”

The business offered outside services for a portion of the pandemic, but slowly moved back indoors, where it offers a wider array of services: a weekly membership for a blow-dry bar, makeup, extensions, hair coloring and styling.

Approximately 13 employees work at any one time, servicing 20 to 25 customers, Charbonnier said. The amount of business has increased with a broader return to events, parties, travel and going out.

“I feel like we’re pretty optimistic because I feel like people are eager to have normalcy again,” she said. “Things are on an upswing here in Marin County.”

The rebound of the business is indicative of a larger optimism among Marin business owners and elected officials about a return to economic normalcy, despite lingering concerns about in-person retail and inflation.

Susan Howard, owner of the Novato Boxing Club, said she offered instruction to about 80 people before the pandemic. The nonprofit business runs through donations for personal training and other fitness services.

Howard said health and safety protocols limited offerings during the pandemic, and her business fell to about 25 students. But now, Howard said she is pursuing competitions and other events to expand.

“I am very optimistic. I see it flourishing even more,” she said. “I see it all coming back in the next year.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom announced in October that the COVID-19 state of emergency would be lifted on Tuesday . The local emergency order in Marin County expires on the same day.

Functionally, said San Rafael Mayor Kate Colin, the state of emergency was an administrative order and its lifting will allow government operations, like in-person public meetings, a path to a return to normal.

But on a larger scale, its expiration signals a rebound from the negative business effects of the pandemic.

“We’re looking at the entire city,” Colin said. “We all want our local businesses, dining, retail, coffee shops to be successful.”

San Rafael is developing an economic plan that will guide city policies in the various economic districts in the city. The city hopes to have it completed by summer.

Colin said vacancy rates in the retail and industrial sectors are declining. Despite a continuing uptick in office vacancies, she said, there is room for optimism, she said.

Mariam Karell, director of the Marin Small Business Development Center, said successful business rebounds were often related to a “pivot” during the pandemic, such as moving services online, or modifying services in a way that expanded offerings.

Dolores Coleman, owner of Dee’s Organic Catering, said her business could not operate during the shutdown. She began service work with Conscious Kitchen, a group that provides school lunches, and eventually found a market with Marin private schools.

She now provides school lunches at sites such as Marin Primary and Middle School in Larkspur and Bacich Elementary School in Kentfield, as well as programs in Petaluma and Marin City.

“Business has tripled,” she said. “COVID, I think, kind of opened the door. It helped me pivot.”

Antonio Russo, owner of True Delicious, a Petaluma company that specializes in biscotti and cookie sales, said half of his business fell off during the pandemic because of restaurant closures. He developed a larger online presence, but still felt the impact of rising costs in the last year.

“We had to keep the company very dynamic,” he said. “We didn’t know with this recession how deep things were going to go.”

While he is still concerned about a potential recession, he said his revenues are up with the return of trade shows and other events.

“I think we are going through a phase where things are a little stable right now, but everyone is out trying to get some fresh air,” he said. “We’re trying to make things more normal, but they may not be.”

Supply chain costs and inflation are continuing to effect revenues, and Karell said some businesses are tapering their optimism in an uncertain economic climate.

“But we’re not out of the deep waters yet. There’s still businesses that are on the brink of closing or might be able to close,” she said. “While there is progress and movement, there are some that are still struggling.”

Local economic and elected officials are still advocating for residents to return to in-person retail in order to continue driving a rebound.

Julie Cervetto, executive director of the Larkspur Chamber of Commerce, said officials feel optimistic.

“We continue to remind the community to shop local and support our small businesses,” she said.

Kevin Haroff, the mayor of Larkspur, said that the city is “very excited” for the economic prospects of the coming year.

“Right now everything is opening again,” he said. “I think the restaurants are doing pretty well, as far as I can tell.”

Jim Welte, executive director of the Mill Valley Chamber of Commerce, said the “the long tail of COVID continues to contribute to the feeling of malaise in our local economy.”