Shift Restrictions Paying Early Dividends For The Mets

After an offseason of speculation about how the new shift restrictions would affect the on-field product in 2023, the New York Mets finally got their first taste of two fielders on each side of the infield upon the pitcher’s release. At least on the offensive side, the initial results were positive.

In the Mets’ 5-2 Grapefruit League victory over the Miami Marlins in the nightcap, the beneficiaries were primarily Francisco Lindor and Daniel Vogelbach. Lindor went 1-for-2 with a sharp single that likely would have been right into the shift last season. Vogelbach added a 2-for-3 showing with hits on two ground balls to the right side, including an RBI single.

Lindor was shifted against 61.3% of the time as a left-handed batter in 2022, which ranked 142nd among batters from one side of the plate. His wOBA with the shift was somewhat better than without it (.350 vs. .331). However, Lindor clearly took more of a seeing-eye approach to hitting in 2022 than in the past, which would indicate that he will adjust his hitting to the new defensive rules. The early result was a hit through the vacated right side.

Vogelbach, meanwhile, was shifted against 76.4% of the time last season, which would seemingly make him a prime candidate to benefit from the lack of the shift. He’s also a strong pull hitter, going to right field 40.7% of the time in 2022. Surprisingly, Vogelbach’s wOBA was .279 without the shift and .368 with it last season. Still, the early dividends indicate that he can definitely take advantage of the lack of an extra fielder in short right field.

After the game, Buck Showalter told reporters that Mets’ players were joking with Vogelbach that he’d challenge Jeff McNeil for the batting title with all those newfound singles.

Over the course of the season, even the most dramatic changes from the rule likely won’t result in an increase of more than 10 hits or so for any individual player. However, for a 600-at-bat season, 10 additional hits mean a 17-point increase in batting average. For a Mets team that thrives on balls in play, the accumulation of those hits may have a noticeable impact on their run production, particularly from two hitters who frequently come up in RBI situations.

So far, so good for the Mets’ offense with the shift restrictions.

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