Predicting functional effects of ion channel variants using new phenotypic machine learning methods

by Christian Malte Boßelmann, Ulrike B. S. Hedrich, Holger Lerche, Nico Pfeifer

Missense variants in genes encoding ion channels are associated with a spectrum of severe diseases. Variant effects on biophysical function correlate with clinical features and can be categorized as gain- or loss-of-function. This information enables a timely diagnosis, facilitates precision therapy, and guides prognosis. Functional characterization presents a bottleneck in translational medicine. Machine learning models may be able to rapidly generate supporting evidence by predicting variant functional effects. Here, we describe a multi-task multi-kernel learning framework capable of harmonizing functional results and structural information with clinical phenotypes. This novel approach extends the human phenotype ontology towards kernel-based supervised machine learning. Our gain- or loss-of-function classifier achieves high performance (mean accuracy 0.853 SD 0.016, mean AU-ROC 0.912 SD 0.025), outperforming both conventional baseline and state-of-the-art methods. Performance is robust across different phenotypic similarity measures and largely insensitive to phenotypic noise or sparsity. Localized multi-kernel learning offered biological insight and interpretability by highlighting channels with implicit genotype-phenotype correlations or latent task similarity for downstream analysis.