Derek Carr is a schematic fit in New Orleans, but questions linger

Derek Carr will have a new home next season in New Orleans, but how will he fit in their offense?

The first big domino in the offseason quarterback market appears ready to topple over.

While the league year is yet to officially begin, reports broke on Monday morning that the New Orleans Saints and quarterback Derek Carr are nearing an agreement to bring the veteran passer to the NFC South. As reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Saints “have emerged as the front runners” to sign Carr, and an agreement “could be reached as early as” Monday.

The quarterback himself seemed to confirm the story, sending this out on Twitter:

The pending move reunites Carr with Saints head coach Dennis Allen, who was Carr’s head coach during the early part of Carr’s rookie season, and the head coach who drafted him out of Fresno State.

So now the big question is this: How does Carr fit in New Orleans?

Schematically, this could be a great pairing.

Answering that question has to start with a discussion regarding Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. Carmichael is the longest-tenured OC in the NFL, and it was surprising to some Saints fans that he kept his job this offseason, after New Orleans sputtered on offense a season ago. The Saints ranked at or near the bottom in many offensive categories last season, including yards gained, points scored, first downs converted, and turnovers given away.

Here is another way to view their offense, in terms of Expected Points Added per Rush, and Expected Points Added per Dropback, according to RBSDM.com:

Being in the bottom-left quadrant on this graph, and clustered with teams like the New England Patriots, the Tennessee Titans, the Washington COmmanders, and the Denver Broncos, is not where you want to be in 2022.

The bulk of Carmichael’s tenure in the league came under Sean Payton, and with Drew Brees at his side. Brees and Carmichael both made the move from the San Diego Chargers to the Saints, and while those three worked together in New Orleans, they crafted some of the NFL’s best offenses.

When talking about Carmichael in 2022, Brees highlighted what the coach does best. “You’ve got to know as a play caller, ‘Ah, you know what? I’ve got all these great plays on the call sheet, but our QB’s struggling a little bit and I just need to get to a play that I know he knows by heart.’ That’s kind of the road to getting the confidence back before you start dialing up this other stuff,” said Brees of Carmichael.

Carmichael’s ability to get a quarterback into rhythm, and his experience in a West Coast-inspired offense — with an emphasis on accuracy and quick decisions from the quarterback — is a window into how this can work for Carr in New Orleans.

While 2022 was largely a down seas for Carr, if you go back to 2021, you see some of the elements that make this a good pairing between what he does best as a quarterback, and where the Saints offense wants to live. Looking at Carr’s charting data from the 2021 season — when he finished the year 12th in the NFL with an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 6.60, just behind Justin Herbert (6.95) and Kyler Murray (6.90) — you see how his strengths mesh well with what a West Coast offense needs from its quarterback.

According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, on throws where Carr’s time to release was less than 2.5 seconds, He completed 79.3% of his passes for 2,124 yards and 11 touchdowns, against just five interceptions. Those throws made up nearly half — 44.8% — of his passing attempts during the 2021 season.

Carr posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP), according to PFF, of 85.5% on those throws. That was fourth-best in the NFL during the 2021 season, behind only Patrick Mahomes among qualified passers.

Given that West Coast offenses emphasize quick decisions, quick throws, and yardage after the catch, the bulk of passing attempts come at or near the line of scrimmage. On throws from 0-9 yards downfield in 2021 — where West Coast offenses tend to live — Carr posted an ACP of 87.5%, second-best in the NFL.

A good example of this in action comes on this 2021 touchdown pass against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Las Vegas lines up with tight end Fabian Moreau in a y-iso alignment on the left, and Carr sees before the snap that the Steelers are in man coverage, with linebacker Joe Schobert walked outside over the tight end.

Las Vegas runs a pair of half-field concepts on this play, with Schobert and Zay Jones running matching corner routes to each side of the field. Schobert’s corner route is part of a smash concept, as running back Kenyan Drake releases to the flat.

But Carr, knowing the Steelers are in man coverage and liking the matchup of Schobert against Moreau, makes the quick decision, and accurate throw, to the tight end:

On this play against the Denver Broncos, Carr comes out of a play-action fake, and you can see the quick decision making as he spots Hunter Renfrow crossing from right-to-left on this verticals concept. Another quick, short throw, but it becomes a big gain for the Raiders offense:

Here is yet another example of Carr’s quick thinking, and ball placement, leading to a big play for the Raiders. On this throw to Darren Waller against the Cincinnati Bengals, the timing of the throw, coupled with the ball placement, leads to a big gain:

Still, an offense cannot live solely near the line of scrimmage, and there are moments when you need to push the ball downfield in the passing game. An underrated part of Carr’s game is his ability to pick his spots, and hit on deeper throws downfield. Even during his down 2022 season, Carr posted an ACP of 39.4% on throws 20 yards or more downfield, which was 14th in the league according to PFF.

Throws like this deep shot to Davante Adams, which Carr puts in a perfect spot:

Now, while the fit for Carr in this offense makes sense, the bigger question that the Saints need to figure out over the next few months is what they can put in place around him. Chris Olave is coming off a strong rookie season, where he caught 72 passes for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns even with inconsistent quarterback play. So that is one piece. But what else will be around Carr in this offense?

Wide receiver Michael Thomas has been battered by injuries the past few years, having played in just ten games during the past three seasons. When he restructured his contract with New Orleans, his 2023 base salary was reduced to just $1.165 million with his roster bonus for the ensuing league year ballooning to $31.8 million.

A number which becomes guaranteed on March 17th.

Given the Saints’ cap position — according to OverTheCap the team is $18 million over the cap right now — that could open the door to Thomas being released as a post-June 1 cut, which would help the organization somewhat financially.

Then there is the Alvin Kamara legal situation. The running back is facing a felony criminal charge following a fight in Las Vegas in 2022, and recently-released video shows Kamara throwing multiple punches in the altercation. Kamara, who is also facing a civil suit as a result of the altercation, pled not guilty to the criminal charge and his attorneys maintain that he is innocent, and that the video does not tell the entire story.

So, from an Xs and Os standpoint, the fit for Carr in New Orleans makes sense.

The issue the team now has to figure out is this: Who are the “Jimmies and Joes” that Carr will be throwing to next season?