Oscars Best Actress update: After SAG and Spirit Awards, Michelle Yeoh finally takes the lead in our odds

This year’s Best Actress race at the Oscars has always been a close battle between Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) and Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”). But for most of that time it was Blanchett on top of our odds, which are based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. That changed however after the SAG Awards, and the Film Independent Spirit Awards cemented it: Yeoh is now the front-runner for Best Actress. Scroll down to see our graph that illustrates the trajectory of this hard-fought contest.

Blanchett was on a roll earlier in the season. She and Yeoh both won Golden Globes in separate Best Actress categories for dramas and musicals/comedies, respectively. Then when they went head-to-head at the Critics Choice and BAFTA Awards, Blanchett prevailed both times. The tide turned at the SAG Awards on February 26. Yeoh beat Blanchett there, and within a week she took the lead from Blanchett in our odds. The Spirit Awards solidified Yeoh’s new status as front-runner when she beat Blanchett again. Voting for the Spirit Awards is open to anyone in the public who wishes to become a paying member of Film Independent, so their membership isn’t all that similar to the motion picture academy’s. But it was a significant win for Yeoh because it occurred during the Oscar voting period.

And boy has that shift in our odds been decisive. Eighteen of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed thus far are predicting Yeoh compared to eight who predict Blanchett. Eleven Gold Derby Editors are betting on Yeoh compared to two betting on Blanchett. And 18 of our Top 24 Users are backing Yeoh compared to six backing Blanchett. The only group where the majority still favors Blanchett are our All-Star Top 24 who had the best prediction scores when you combine the last two years’ Oscar results: 13 of them say Blanchett compared to 11 who say Yeoh.

So this race is far from over. But as of now a Blanchett victory would be something of an upset. Do you agree with that assessment, or has the Yeoh ascendancy been a mirage?

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