Having been there, lost that, Kevin Love warns Heat about perils of life in NBA play-in round

Miami Heat newcomer Kevin Love has lived the NBA play-in tournament. He doesn’t want to go back. With good reason.

While for some lower seeds, the play-in round, where one or two victories can secure a spot in the first round, is a second chance at making things right, it also can be a path fraught with peril for teams that under the NBA’s previous format would have advanced directly to the best-of-seven opening round.

“We certainly have an uphill climb to get to where we need to be,” Love said, with the Heat at No. 7 in the East headed into Friday night’s rematch against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami-Dade Arena, “and, more than anything, that’s just not to be in the play-in.

“We’re right there, and we feel like we can’t keep setting ourselves back. We need to start winning these next several games in order to put ourselves in a good spot and able to not have to be in the play-in.”

Love speaks from experience.

Last season, Love’s Cavaliers closed the season No. 8 in the East, with a turnaround 44-38 season. Under the playoff format before it changed in 2020, that would have meant a direct ticket to the first round against the No. 1 seed.

But in the wake of the league’s pandemic-interrupted season in 2020, the NBA formulated a stop-gap, last-chance play-in format because of that shortened schedule.

That approach, in turn, led to the current play-in system, first put into place in 2021 as a means of incentivizing teams not to tank late-season games in favor of lottery position. The play-in format instead has 20 of the league’s 30 teams in the running for the postseason at the end of the regular season.

Essentially, it is a three-game round in each conference played, this season, in the five days between the April 9 end of the regular season and April 15 start of the first round.

The opening-round of games has the No. 7 seed hosting the No. 8 seed in a single game to determine the No. 7 seed that will face the No. 2 seed in the opening round. That round also has the No. 9 seed hosting the No. 10 seed in a single game for the right to play on the road against the loser of the Nos. 7-8 game.

The loser of Nos. 7-8 then hosts vs. winner of Nos. 9-10 in a single game to determine the No. 8 seed that faces the No. 1 seed in the best-of-seven opening round.

Last season, Love’s Cavaliers lost the Nos. 7-8 game on the road to the Brooklyn Nets. That dropped them to a last-chance home game against the winner of the Nos. 9-10 game, with the Atlanta Hawks defeating the visiting Charlotte Hornets in that Nos. 9-10 game.

Ultimately, Atlanta, as a No. 9 seed, won on the road at the No. 8 Cavaliers, with the Hawks going on to play the No. 1 Heat in the 2022 first round.

“We saw last year, after having such a great year and having gone through injuries in Cleveland, we still gave ourselves a chance,” Love said. “But we didn’t make the playoffs and that was a major letdown.”

In the two seasons of the current play-in format, No. 8 has been a particularly tenuous position, with the Heat returning to play Friday just one game ahead of Atlanta in the Nos. 7-8 race in the East.

In the Western Conference last season, the No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers defeated the No. 8 Golden State Warriors to secure the No. 7 playoff seed. Then, with their second chance, the No. 8 Warriors lost in their last-chance game to the visiting No. 9 Memphis Grizzlies, who had defeated the visiting No. 10 San Antonio Spurs in their opening win-or-go-home game.

Over the two years of the play-in in its current format, the opening games of the play-in have held to form, with No. 7 seeds 4-0 against visiting No. 8 seeds, and No. 9 seeds 4-0 against visiting No. 10 seeds.

But in the second round of the play-in, No. 8 seeds are just 1-3, with No. 9 seeds 3-1.

The Heat’s Friday night return for the conclusion of their six-game homestand will come at No. 7, with a 1 1/2-game lead over No. 8 Atlanta, a three-game lead over the No. 9 Toronto Raptors and a 3 1/2-game lead over the No. 10 Washington Wizards.

The Heat exited Wednesday night’s 104-100 loss to the Cavaliers three games behind the No. 6 Brooklyn Nets and four games behind the No. 5 New York Knicks, with 15 games remaining on their regular-season schedule.

As far as tiebreakers, the Heat still can gain the playoff tiebreaker against the Knicks by winning the two remaining games in that season series, have lost the tiebreaker to the Nets, have won the tiebreaker against the Hawks, and with victories in remaining games against the Raptors and Wizards can put themselves in contention for those tiebreakers.

Heat forward Jimmy Butler said he leaves the standings to others, but also appreciates the potentially dire consequences of the play-in round.

“I don’t look at the standings, I’m not going to lie to you, I don’t. I don’t look at none of that stuff.” he said. “I’m guessing we’re in the play-in, right? So we better start winning some games and get out of that.

“If we don’t, then we better win whenever the play-in thing starts.”

Per the NBA:

Q: When is the 2023 Play-In Tournament?

“The Play-In Tournament will begin Tuesday, April 11 and conclude Friday, April 14. The teams with the seventh-highest and eighth-highest winning percentages in each conference will each have two opportunities to win one game to earn a playoff spot. The teams with the ninth-highest and tenth-highest winning percentages in each conference will each have to win two consecutive games to earn a playoff spot.”

Q: How will the Play-In Tournament be structured?

“At the conclusion of the regular season but before the first round of the playoffs, the team with the 7th-highest winning percentage in each conference will host the team with the 8th-highest winning percentage in a Play-In Game (the “Seven-Eight Game”). The winner of the Seven-Eight Game in each conference will earn the No. 7 seed.

“The team with the 9th-highest winning percentage in each conference will host the team with the 10th-highest winning percentage in the “Nine-Ten Game”. The loser of the Seven-Eight Game will host the winner of the Nine-Ten Game in a Play-In Game, and the winner of that game in each conference will earn the No. 8 seed.”

Q: What happens to the winners of the Play-In Tournament?

“The winners of the Play-In tournament will receive the 7th and 8th-seeded positions in each conference. Following the Play-In Tournament, the NBA Playoffs will commence with the traditional 16-team, best-of-seven series structure.”

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