Assessment of 2021/22 influenza epidemic scenarios in Italy during SARS-CoV-2 outbreak

by Maria Chironna, Giovanni Dipierro, Jean Marie Franzini, Giancarlo Icardi, Daniela Loconsole, Elena Pariani, Stefano Pastore, Marco Volpe

Global mitigation strategies to tackle the threat posed by SARS-CoV-2 have produced a significant decrease of the severity of 2020/21 seasonal influenza, which might result in a reduced population natural immunity for the upcoming 2021/22 influenza season. To predict the spread of influenza virus in Italy and the impact of prevention and control measures, we present an age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including the role of social mixing patterns and the impact of age-stratified vaccination strategies and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) such as school closures, partial lockdown, as well as the adoption of personal protective equipment and the practice of hand hygiene. We find that vaccination campaigns with standard coverage would produce a remarkable mitigation of the spread of the disease in moderate influenza seasons, making the adoption of NPIs unnecessary. However, in case of severe seasonal epidemics, a standard vaccination coverage would not be sufficiently effective in fighting the epidemic, thus implying that a combination with the adoption of NPIs is necessary to contain the disease. Alternatively, our results show that the enhancement of the vaccination coverage would reduce the need to adopt NPIs, thus limiting the economic and social impacts that NPIs might produce. Our results highlight the need to respond to the influenza epidemic by strengthening the vaccination coverage.