Michigan’s March Madness Hopes Are Gone. What Does Juwan Howard Do Now?

With a loss to Rutgers in Big Ten action, the Wolverines have tumbled out of contention for the NCAA tournament and will likely miss it for the first time in eight years.

Michigan entered the Big Ten tournament likely needing two wins to make a last-second push into the NCAA tournament. It exited without even getting one.

The Wolverines dropped what amounted to a must-win game against Rutgers on Thursday, getting outworked by the Big Ten’s most blue-collar program and in the process sealing their fate as an NIT team. Rutgers outrebounded Michigan by seven, won far more than its share of 50-50 balls and had far more energy on its bench all game long. The dejection really became noticeable midway through the second half, when the Wolverines looked shell shocked to be approaching elimination, and with it, the reality of missing the NCAA tournament.

“Our young men [are] able to see it, read it, and they understood the magnitude of this game,” coach Juwan Howard said postgame. “They've heard it so many times from media or social media how every game's important, what lies on it.”

After scoring the game’s first seven points, Michigan was outscored by 19 the rest of the way, never making a real push in the second half once Rutgers took control. It’s easy to blame a long shooting slump (Michigan didn’t make a field goal for more than 14 minutes at one point), but the Wolverines did little to make Rutgers uncomfortable defensively or try to muck up the game.

And the play that swung the game? An offensive rebound off a missed free throw by the shooter (Rutgers freshman Derek Simpson) that turned into a layup and sparked an 11–0 run.

“It [was] a little deflating,” Hunter Dickinson said. “Just miscommunication between us, the guys out there. That’s something we practice a lot. Unacceptable.”

Michigan just barely sneaked into the NCAA tournament a season ago. Its surprise run to the Sweet 16 made it easy to forget just how mediocre the Wolverines really were, with a 17–14 mark in the 2021–22 regular season and a first-round Big Ten tournament exit that forced some nerves on Selection Sunday.

This year, the Wolverines won’t be as lucky. Not only will Michigan miss the NCAA tournament, but it may not end up close to the cut line at all. Michigan will finish the season under .500 against opponents in the first three quadrants of the NCAA’s team sheets. Add in a loss to an in-state directional school in Central Michigan that finished the year No. 328 in the NET, and it’s hard to chalk up this season as anything less than an abject disaster in Ann Arbor. The fall from just two years ago, when the Wolverines were a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament (and one of the favorites to win it all until star forward Isaiah Livers went down with a season-ending injury), is rather jarring. Howard, anointed the sport’s next coaching star after that monster second season, suddenly enters this offseason with a lot to prove.

Perhaps scarier: The path to righting the ship isn’t necessarily a clear one. Howard emphasized the team’s youth postgame, noting that Michigan started three freshmen and a sophomore in the game. But the Wolverines could well lose their three best players this spring. Sophomore Kobe Bufkin and freshman Jett Howard are projected first-round picks (Bufkin’s rise up draft boards has been meteoric of late), and first-round picks tend not to return for another year these days. Star big man Dickinson’s professional path is far less clear, but it’s also not clear what more he has to prove in the college game. Like Illinois’s Kofi Cockburn a year ago, Dickinson could easily move on and begin his pro career. And while Howard recruited well as a head coach, his 2023 class is on paper the worst he has signed at Michigan and doesn’t feature a single top-75 recruit. To say this will be an important offseason in the transfer portal for Michigan would be an understatement, and Howard’s additions there have been hit-or-miss in the last three seasons.

The good news: Michigan does appear to have found its point guard of the future in freshman Dug McDaniel. After three straight years of adding grad transfer stopgaps at that spot, McDaniel was thrust into action after Princeton transfer Jaelin Llewellyn’s injury and thrived, averaging 10 points, four assists and just 1.5 turnovers per game in Big Ten play. Young big man Tarris Reed Jr. has also shown promise and brings a different element than Dickinson as a defense-first big man who’s good on the glass.

Still, it’s hard not to look at this season, failing to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2015, as an inflection point for Howard’s tenure at his alma mater. Michigan has now lost 15 games in consecutive seasons for the first time in more than 20 years. Howard so far has ignored NBA overtures, but with younger son Jett likely headed to the pro ranks and older son Jace now entering his senior year, he may be more open to listening to those NBA opportunities sooner rather than later.

There’s no more ignoring the downward trend at Michigan. As John Beilein’s players have departed, the wins have, too. This was the first year Howard didn’t have at least one Beilein holdover, and it will end in an NIT berth. With the program now fully in Howard’s hands and a potential reset on his plate this spring, how he reshapes the Wolverines’ roster will be a defining moment for how his coaching tenure at his alma mater will be remembered.