San Francisco BART Planning Second Transbay Tunnel Despite Spare Capacity

pa href=https://www.cato.org/people/marc-joffe hreflang=enMarc Joffe/a
/p

pDespite reduced ridership and an impending financial crisis, the Bay Area Rapid Transit system is spending hundreds of millions of dollars planning to increase its capacity. In coming years, Bay Area voters may be asked first to bail out the system, and then pay for a second transbay subway tunnel that appears to be unnecessary./p
pLike most U.S. transit systems, BART suffered a catastrophic drop in ridership as the COVID-19 pandemic emerged in March 2020. While it has recovered some of the lost passengers, ridership levels remain well below 2019 levels and growth is stalling. Recently, BART a href=https://www.bart.gov/news/articles/2020/news20200225#chartsreported/a mid-week ridership about 40% of 2019 budgeted levels./p
pBART is experiencing a slower recovery than systems in some other metropolitan areas because the Bay Area’s tech-heavy workforce can more easily work remotely. Further, the region has experienced a population decline, and some commuters have opted to drive due to concerns over BART’s safety and cleanliness./p
pAs a result, BART has experienced a steep drop in fare revenue and is only able to maintain current service levels by virtue of extraordinary federal aid provided in response to the pandemic. That aid is now expected to run out in 2025, at which point a new revenue source will be needed to avoid deep service cuts. That revenue source could be a new tax which will have to be approved by local voters as early as November 2024, but more likely in 2026. Meanwhile, BART is teaming up with other California transit agencies to seek increased state subsidies from the legislature—a heavy lift as California faces revenue shortfalls and a large 2023-24 budget deficit./p
pMeanwhile, BART continues to work on plans to construct a second tunnel between San Francisco and Oakland. On February 3, BART’s Inspector General a href=https://www.bart.gov/sites/default/files/docs/REPORT_Link21%20Expenditures%20Missing%20from%20Public%20Reports_Final_020323.pdfrevealed/a the agency has already committed $255 million to this planning exercise, paying consultants to conduct demand modeling, feasibility studies, and community outreach among other activities./p
pThe IG further reported that BART has negotiated optional extensions to these consulting contracts at a total potential cost of $595 million. Funding for these activities is coming from bonds and toll hikes authorized by voters in previous elections./p
pThese planning expenses are a tiny fraction of the cost of digging a second BART tunnel. The preliminary cost estimate for the tunnel project is $28.8 billion, which would have to come from a combination of federal, state, and local sources, with the last likely taking the form of a new voter-approved bond./p
pSo, BART will first ask voters for a tax or toll hike to cover losses from declining ridership, followed by a bond to fund new tunnel capacity that appears to be no longer required given current trends. BART leadership will have to convince the electorate that ridership will remain depressed over the intermediate term to justify the operating subsidy, and that it will then rebound to much higher levels by 2040 to justify a bond issue for the new tunnel./p
pAmbitious transit projects like Link21 are often justified as necessary measures to avert the climate crisis, but this argument misses some important considerations./p
pFirst, Northern California transportation accounts for about 0.1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, so no local transit project can meaningfully move the needle on planetary warming. Second, even in the unlikely event that the tunnel is completed on schedule in 2040, it will mostly take riders out of electric cars rather than gasoline powered vehicles, since the state has enacted a plan to ban the sale of new combustion engine cars in 2035. Finally, given the fact that the existing tunnel will remain below capacity, the new tunnel will not be needed to replace trips in single passenger vehicles./p
pBART should mothball the Link21 project and save the $595 million of contract options now in the pipeline. While those funds cannot legally be redirected to operations under current law, BART should seek authority from the legislature or voters to do so, thereby reducing the need for new taxes or tolls./p
p/p