2023 Oscar predictions: What will win Best Production Design? Pros and cons for each nominee …

The 95th Academy Awards are going to be a nailbiter above and below the line. Nominated for Best Production Design are “Babylon,” “Elvis,” “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Avatar: The Way of Water,” and “The Fabelmans.” The Critics Choice, Art Directors Guild and BAFTA Awards have all picked “Babylon,” thereby positioning it as the frontrunner to win the Oscar.

However, the divisive Old Hollywood epic’s liabilities, as well as the strengths of its competitors, leave other possibilities open to consideration. For one, we could see the third instance of a corresponding Best Production Design/Best Cinematography win this decade, which excludes “Babylon” and permits only an “Elvis” or “All Quiet on the Western Front” victory. Even though the data doesn’t favor the remaining two nominees, “Avatar: The Way of Water” and “The Fabelmans,” their quality alone makes a compelling case. Here are my arguments for, and against, each nominee.

Florencia Martin, “Babylon”

Why it will win: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” and “La La Land” won this Oscar, and “Babylon” benefits from its associations with both. Between this film, “Blonde,” and “Licorice Pizza,” Martin has established quite the evocative track record of LA period pieces. Nearly every scene of this varicolored epic takes place on a distinct set: the party at Don Wallach’s mansion, the Blockhouse (AKA the Asshole of Los Angeles), and, of course, all the (diegetic) sets in a tracking shot taking audiences through all the different pictures that were able to be simultaneously filmed in the desert during the silent era, just to name some. The movie’s ADG and BAFTA wins are a huge leg up over its fellow nominees. The Oscars and BAFTA diverge often enough, but the ADG-BAFTA combination is pretty convincing. This is Martin’s first nomination, but that shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance. It wasn’t, at least, for Barbra Ling (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), Hannah Beachler (“Black Panther”), Paul D. Austerberry (“The Shape of Water”) or David Wasco (“La La Land”), all of whom won their first bids.

Why it won’t win: Every film just mentioned was also a formidable contender across the board, whereas “Babylon” missed Best Picture, Best Cinematography and acting nominations for Margot Robbie and Brad Pitt. Some below-the-line categories, like makeup and hairstyling, almost never line up with the Best Picture field, but production design isn’t one of them. The last film to take this category without a nomination in Best Picture is, funnily enough, Baz Luhrmann’s “The Great Gatsby.” That movie’s team is competing this year for “Elvis,” which is “Babylon’s” nearest competition.

Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy, “Elvis”

Why it will win: Two of Baz’s films have taken this category in the past, and “Elvis” doesn’t lag behind “The Great Gatsby” or “Moulin Rouge!” for shiny objects and velvet divans. Furthermore, the sets so accurately reproduce images from Elvis’ iconic concerts that they lend Austin Butler’s performance an invaluable degree of authenticity. “Avatar: The Way of Water” losing its ADG category cements “Elvis” as this race’s second-place contender.

Why it won’t win: Though arguably reductive, the perception that the movie’s production design is mostly “just a bunch of stages” persists. If enough voters appreciate the movie’s hyper-realistic period recreation but also feel it is environmentally homogenous, they may throw their vote elsewhere.

Dylan Cole and Ben Procter, “Avatar: The Way of Water”

Why it will win: The first “Avatar” won this category at the 2010 Oscars, and crafts for “The Way of Water” match, if not exceed, that film’s. Considering the tanks that had to be constructed to enable the film’s immersive underwater sequences, this is an example of production design with a unique role in a project’s technical execution. “Avatar” is the only film of its kind in this category. While it lost the ADG Fantasy Feature to “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” it isn’t competing against that film at the Oscars.

Why it won’t win: As integral as the production design is to nearly every frame of this movie, it’s also largely invisible. What viewers do see are a lot of digital effects, and while the academy’s branch of art directors was able to recognize the ways in which set design facilitated those effects, they’re not casting the only votes this time. Additionally, the promise of sequels in the near future diminishes any urgency to give “The Way of Water” an Oscar for its technical prowess. Voters who are torn between “Avatar” and another contender may decide to wait and cumulatively reward the franchise once Cameron is finished telling his story.

Christian M. Goldbeck, “All Quiet on the Western Front”

Why it will win: “All Quiet’s” production design is easy to appreciate for its vast recreation of trench networks, as well as the contrast struck between the battlefield and baroque meeting rooms where French and German diplomats conduct a different kind of battle.

Why it won’t win: “1917,” “All Quiet’s” best and most recent comparison, lost this category to “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” and there’s a contender (or two) like that in this year’s race as well.

Rick Carter, “The Fabelmans”

Why it will win: Universal has released several poignant featurettes of Steven Spielberg tearfully walking through Carter’s sets, agape at how precisely they recreate memories of his childhood homes. There’s a personal dimension to the film’s production design the other nominees don’t share.

Why it won’t win: The “quietly exquisite” contender almost never wins this category. While Carter’s ‘50s-era aesthetic is impressive—how can you not love the opening shot’s marquee advertising Cecil B. DeMille’s “The Greatest Show on Earth”?—the environment it encompasses is insular. The production design’s strength—accurately recreating the halls and rooms of Spielberg’s childhood—is also, insofar as this category is concerned, a weakness. “Roma” and “Parasite,” past nominees recognized for constructing and immersing audiences inside family homes, lost, respectively, to the expansive world-building of “Black Panther” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” This year’s lineup has both a sci-fi blockbuster and a Tinseltown period piece.

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