Kentucky Derby Super Six features two in and two out
Say goodbye to Cave Rock and Victory Formation and welcome National Treasure and Confidence Game to our Kentucky Derby Super Six.
Cave Rock is off the Derby trail, perhaps a late start to his 3-year-old campaign and all the bad weather in Southern California contributing to a decision to leave the colt in the Bob Baffert barn.
In order for Cave Rock to be eligible to pick up qualifying points for the Derby, he would have needed to be transferred to a trainer other than Baffert before the end of February. Since he wasn’t, the best guess here is he’ll be pointed to the Preakness or Belmont Stakes.
Victory Formation ran up the track in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 18, finishing ninth and dropping out of our rankings.
Right now, this looks like a two-horse race to find the winner’s circle on Derby day. Arabian Knight and Forte look to be at the head of the class, with Practical Move just a notch below the top two.
Here’s how we see the Derby picture nine weeks from the big race:
1. Arabian Knight
This Uncle Mo colt has been highly regarded since he breezed to victory in his debut on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Keeneland on Nov. 5. He followed up that sparkling effort with a victory in the Grade III Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 28.
Now in the Tim Yakteen barn so he can earn Derby qualifying points, he’ll turn in his final Derby prep in either the Arkansas Derby on April 1 or the Santa Anita Derby on April 8.
Top Beyer speed rating: 97.
2. Forte
The son of Violence most likely would be No. 1 on this list if not for Arabian Knight. It’s possible we could have two 3-year-old monsters this year. Forte, the 2-year-old champion of 2022, has won five of six and passes the eye test most every time he runs.
Forte’s most recent victory came in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park last weekend. The Florida Derby on March 25 will most likely be his final Derby prep.
Top Beyer: 100.
3. Practical Move
A $230,000 purchase at a 2-year-olds in training sale, the Yakteen trainee didn’t particularly impress anyone until the Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 18 when he won at 10-1 while running the 1-1/16 miles in an impressive 1:41.65.
The Practical Joke colt resurfaced last weekend in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita and won just as impressively. He prevailed by 2½ lengths under Ramon Vazquez while running the 1-1/16 miles in 1:42.01.
Top Beyer: 100.
4. Instant Coffee
A Bolt d’Oro colt trained by Brad Cox, Instant Coffee made his 2023 debut a winning one, taking the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds on Jan. 21. He figures to make his final start before the Kentucky Derby in the Louisiana Derby on March 25.
He’s won three of four, with his only loss coming in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct. 8 when he finished fourth.
Top Beyer: 92.
5. National Treasure
He missed last weekend’s San Felipe with a bruised foot, but the injury is not believed to be serious. No word on the Quality Road colt’s next start.
This guy reminds me a lot of Country House, who kept running in the money in his Derby preps but never found the winner’s circle until Derby day when he won via the disqualification of Maximum Security.
Top Beyer: 97
6. Confidence Game
The son of Candy Ride was impressive in victory in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 25, but was the win a case of the colt showing improvement or the fact he liked the muddy track?
Perhaps we’ll find out in either the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass Stakes (April 8).
Top Beyer: 94.
Follow Art Wilson on Twitter @Sham73