Scotland v Ireland: Six Nations 2023, Match Preview pt I
KO 3.00 at BT Murrayfield
Sunday 12th March 2023
Live on BBC1
The Triple Crown. A semi-mythical piece of rugby lore that may have declined in relevance as the tournament expanded from the Home Nations to Five Nations and then to Six Nations but which still comes with bragging rights for at least some of the competing nations.
The earliest sides to ‘win’ it (including Scotland in 1891) wouldn’t even have recognised the term. Until 2006 it was an intangible honour but now comes with its very own trophy – lifted 5 times by Ireland, 4 times by Wales and 3 times by England. One name is notably absent from that list of course. In fact, Scotland have only once played a match that would have seen them Triple Crowned in the last 27 years. A game at Twickenham in 2017 that it would probably be best to draw a veil over…
The dark blues’ history with the Triple Crown is a tale of two eras. Pre-World War II, Scotland played 9 matches where victory would secure that honour, winning 8 and losing just 1. Since then, it’s been slim pickings.
Scotland results in matches that would secure a Triple Crown (1945 onwards):
- 1973 – lost to England
- 1975 – lost to England
- 1984 – beat Ireland
- 1987 – lost to England
- 1990 – beat England
- 1993 – lost to England
- 1995 – lost to England
- 1996 – lost to England
- 2017 – lost to England
The Scots have won on all three occasions they have played Ireland having already defeated England and Wales – although how much impact results from 1984, 1938 and 1907 are likely to have on the players of 2023 is certainly open to question…
Bonus stat – this will be the 10th time that Scotland have played the number 1 ranked side in the world since the rankings were introduced 20 years ago. Across these fixtures, they only finished within a score on one occasion (the 17 – 22 reverse in the 2017 Autumn Tests against New Zealand) and the average margin of defeat in these games was 24.3 points. Happy Thursday!
Ireland Scouting Report
Fast Starts
In 9 of their last 10 Six Nations’ matches, Ireland have scored their first try of the game in the opening 10 minutes. The only occasion they didn’t manage this was against Scotland in Dublin last year when it took all the way through until the 16th minute before Ronan Kelleher crashed over. By contrast, the last time Scotland managed a Six Nations’ try before 10 minutes were on the clock was 24 games ago – Fraser Brown’s score against Italy in Rome in the 2018 tournament. During this period the average time of the Scots’ first try was 22.5 minutes.
That difference in opening salvos speaks to the teams’ varying strategies. The Irish kick off with detailed structures in place. Everyone knows their role in a system which is everything – there’s a decent chance a number of plays are pre-called. The Scots undoubtedly have their own systems but as Finn Russell has talked about there can be a bit more effort around the stand off and his side finding the best way into matches. Once they settle and start to pick apart the opposition’s defensive structures it can be devastating. The risk against the world’s number one side is that if Scotland save their best stuff for the second half (as has happened in the opening three rounds) the game might already be out of sight and even an attacking masterclass might not be enough to bring it back.
Powerful Finishes
In each of their last 6 matches in the tournament, the Irish have also scored at least one try in the final 10 minutes of the game. There is an element of wearing down their opposition as well as expecting to be fitter than any team they come up against. Across the first three rounds this year, Ireland have made 61 more carries than their opponents, showing patience to go through phase after phase that may not always have an immediate pay off but could earn them that little bit of extra space that is all they need to go for the jugular towards the end of the match.
Territorial dominance also plays a part in this grinding down of the other side. Against the Irish, Italy spent 62% of the game inside their own half; for France this stat was 64%; and for Wales it was 54% – at least in the opening 40 minutes of the match at the Principality before Ireland got a little sloppy. It’s the mental stress of being in areas of the pitch where a mistake can be most costly that will tire the opposition. The Irish are masters of exerting this pressure and Scotland will need to be able to play at their highest possible levels through fatigue right up to the 80 minute mark.
Midfield Muddle?
If the dark blues are looking for some encouragement then it is noticeable that Ireland’s defence hasn’t been at its usual suffocating level of intensity. As Gregor Townsend and his coaches have found out themselves when the focus shifts to prioritising and improving one area other facets of the game can suffer a little. The Irish have been opening up their attacking options and it may be that lower tackle completion rates are, at least in part, a product of less time being available for defensive drills.
Against France, Ireland completed 79% of the tackles they attempted. Versus Italy, that figure was 83%. Of particular interest to a Mr. H. Jones is the tackles missed by Irish outside centres in the tournament so far – 4 against Italy (Bundee Aki), 4 against France and 4 against Wales (both Garry Ringrose). Ringrose is celebrated for his defence so the high number of misses certainly seems out of character. Ireland’s performance against Italy in particular seemed to have some issues with the wingers (who have also missed 13 tackles of their own this Six Nations) making wrong decisions and poor reads, leading to their outside centres being exposed. It’s an area that Scotland must try and take advantage of – they will need good quality possession first though.
Miscellaneous
- In just three games, the Irish starting wings, James Lowe and Mack Hansen, have made a combined total of 47 passes – that’s compared to 12 by Duhan van der Merwe and Kyle Steyn.
- Ireland have won 24 turnovers during this season’s Six Nations. No other side has won more than 15.
- Caelan Doris is making the early running for a player of the tournament nomination. His defence is good but it’s his threat with ball in hand that will concern Scotland most. He has made 41 carries for 139 metres and thrown 17 passes. While his tally of 5 tackle breaks is reasonable it’s his ability to consistently get over the gain line, even into the teeth of double or triple hits that really benefits his side the most.
- Ireland and England are the only teams yet to receive a yellow or red card in this year’s Six Nations.
Previous results
This will be the 12th time the two sides have met in Edinburgh for a Six Nations’ match. The head to head looks like this from Scotland’s perspective:
Most recent meeting at Murrayfield:
Scotland 24 – 27 Ireland
Significant stat
25% lineout success rate for Scotland. Given the fact that the next worst outcome during the Townsend era was 58% in the teeth of a gale at Murrayfield against England, the setpiece meltdown against the Irish really was an all-time low. The visitors have generally proved pretty adept at pinching Scottish throws in recent Six Nations – 4 in 2018; 3 in 2019; 2 in 2020; 6 in 2021; and 1 in 2022.
This facet of the game is where Scotland will build many of their initial attacking phases from. If it goes wrong Finn Russell, Huwipulotu et al will be much less effective.
The Scottish Rugby Blog match report from that game is .
Officials
Referee: Luke Pearce (England)
Assistant Referee 1: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referee 2: Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Stuart Terheege (England)
Scotland have won or drawn the penalty count in their last 10 Test matches, stretching back to (rather inconveniently) the last time they played Ireland. On that day the sequence went 15 – 10 in favour of the Irish. It’s an area that the visitors have dominated in these clashes with the Scots only winning the count once in their last 13 meetings with Ireland.
Scotland have had a bit of a mixed bag with Mr Pearce. If it wasn’t for a late missed penalty against Australia, they would have won all four previous games he had taken charge of but the penalties haven’t always run their way. The English official has also yet to card an opposition player – two or three on Sunday would certainly rebalance things!
Scotland’s previous games with Mr Pearce in charge:
- 2
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