I make thousands at Cheltenham Festival every year without backing a single winner – I get paid out whoever comes first
MEET the punter who regularly wins thousands at Cheltenham Festival – without backing a single winner.
It might sound too good to be true, but this is reality for ultra-shrewd trader Peter Webb.
Incredibly, he won on 28 of 28 races at the Festival three years ago.
The year before it was 27 of 28 and last year he won on 26, a frankly ridiculous strike rate.
Best of all, it doesn’t matter which horse wins because Peter has made his money before the race even starts.
So how on earth does he do it?
Basically, Peter, who has bet well into six figures on races, is what’s known as a Betfair trader – and he’s one of the biggest in the world.
Unlike you and me, he doesn’t really bet on horses to win in singles, doubles or accumulators.
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In fact, he doesn’t ever really bet on a horse to win full stop.
Instead, he uses his expert eye to spot trends and before races start.
For example, let’s say Willie Mullins wins the first two races on day one of Cheltenham.
Peter knows the knock-on effect of the best trainer in the business striking early is that people will want to back his horses in later races.
That’s when he enters the market.
If Peter, 54, thinks a horse’s odds are going to shorten, he backs it.
When the odds shorten, Peter strikes.
STRIKE WHEN MARKETS ARE HOT
He cashes out his original bet for profit, exploiting the difference in odds.
Conversely, if he thinks a horse won’t win, he will lay it (in other words, bet on it not winning) then when the odds drift he will cash out for a profit as well.
Like all good things, it sounds easy but Peter has spent more than 20 years perfecting his craft.
It all takes place on the Betfair Exchange.
There, rather than a back a horse with a bookie, punters basically ‘match’ bets with other punters.
The markets are often extremely fluid and really come into their own during mega weeks like Cheltenham – where it is predicted more than £1billion will be wagered.
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That’s when Peter goes into overdrive, trying to make all his instinct pay off in the form of cold, hard cash.
He said: “I made money on every race on the final day of last year’s Cheltenham.
“But you never can gurantee you’re going to get them all right! Often I’ll do something and the market will do something else, but that’s the risk you run.
“Most of my time is spent thinking about what people are thinking about. For each race there is a slightly different angle.
“At Cheltenham I will be active half an hour before the race starts.
“If something just romped home then everyone is excited and betting on the next race.
“Then I have 30 minutes to decide what to do. What it means is by the time the race has started I have cashed out – so I know I have won before the race is underway.
EXPECTS TO WIN £1,000 OR MORE
“I get involved when I see people acting on what I think will happen.
“By the time the race starts I am out of the market, have my money and can sit back and watch the race.”
How much Peter – who created Betfair trading software Bet Angel – makes depends on how certain he is of the market and how much liquidity there is.
For a huge event like the Gold Cup he’ll be aiming to come out up £1,000 or more.
For lesser races he is just happy to make any kind of profit.
It also depends on the day.
Peter says he is ‘super cautious’ on the Tuesday because it’s a guessing game – jockey trends, ground factors and momentum have not yet kicked in.
It’s clear there are absolutely loads of factors to weigh up and account for – but often only one outcome, especially for Peter.
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Remember to gamble responsibly
A responsible gambler is someone who:
- Establishes time and monetary limits before playing
- Only gambles with money they can afford to lose
- Never chases their losses
- Doesn’t gamble if they’re upset, angry or depressed
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