Newcastle’s goal shortage: Why poor finishing could cost Eddie Howe’s side a Champions League spot
“I’m not going to sit here and say everything’s great. But I back the players, and I back our methods.”
Eddie Howe is keeping positive in the face of adversity. His Newcastle side have won plenty of admirers this season, for the sheer speed that he has turned them from relegation-battlers into Champions League hopefuls, a transformation in the space of barely a year.
No side have lost fewer games than the Magpies across the Premier League. They have taken points from Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham, turned St James’ Park into a fortress where only Liverpool have managed to escape with three points, and reached the Carabao Cup final before falling short.
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But as wins have turned into draws and Newcastle have suffered their first back-to-back defeats of the season, it’s become increasingly clear to those around the club that the Magpies have an increasingly goal-shaped problem.
Howe remains unmoved.
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“We always complicate the game as coaches, because you’re looking to add layers and improve the team – but ultimately it’s quite a simple game, and we need to stick to the basics,” he said ahead of Sunday’s game with Wolves, live on Sky Sports Premier League.
“You can’t keep playing well and not getting your rewards.”
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Newcastle’s drop in goals and results has been more stark than their performances which have remained relatively consistent all season, but it’s no coincidence that their current predicament stacks up almost perfectly with the Premier League’s return after the World Cup.
Howe blames bad luck for some of their issues, but it’s far from their only problem, and something hasn’t clicked at St James’ in the same way since the mid-season break.
Although Newcastle won their first game back on Boxing Day 3-0 at Leicester, two months on that remains the last time they scored more than once in a league match.
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In fact, across 13 games in all competitions since that victory, they’ve netted only nine times, dropping out of the FA Cup at League One side Sheffield Wednesday, losing the Carabao Cup final to Manchester United and winning just one of their last eight league games.
That run has seen them fall from third, four points inside the top four, to sixth, now outside the Champions League spots by the same margin.
Howe and his analysis team don’t need to dig deep into the advanced analytics to find the source of the problem. Newcastle’s shot count and expected goals tally has slumped, to a point where their xG would equate to 55 across the season – almost certainly a long way off the pace of any other top-four contender – if it were realised.
Digging a little deeper, in their last eight games Newcastle have managed the fewest high turnovers – where a passage of play starts 40 metres or less from the opponent’s goal – in the entire league. Up until the Leicester game, they topped the division for moves starting within a pass or two of a shooting opportunity.
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Across the same period in their superb opening 16 games of the season, they completed the most ‘pressed sequences’ – where an opposition side has three or fewer passes in their own half before their possession is interrupted by an interception, a stoppage in play or a shot. Newcastle’s numbers have dropped off to a similar degree since then, too.
It has been a perfect storm for Howe. Lacking the same effective pressing to force mistakes from opposition teams inside their own half has made shooting, and scoring, a more laborious task for Newcastle.
But when they have had opportunities, they have now gone from blowing their xG tally out of the water before the World Cup to fluffing their lines time and time again. Against Liverpool, they drew a blank when they had the chances to materially change the outcome of the game. The same with Manchester United. The same with Manchester City.
Miguel Almiron’s seemingly weekly stunners couldn’t go on forever and have dried up, but a more dependable source of goals, Callum Wilson, is arguably the one suffering most clearly. Howe has been asked whether he is in danger of losing his place to summer signing Alexander Isak, but maintains the Swedish striker is not “at 100 per cent” after coming back from injury.
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Wilson should have equalised for Newcastle at Man City last weekend, scuffing a fine chance off the bottom of his boot with only Ederson to beat. Though the hosts were deserved winners overall, Newcastle’s missed chances on the break summed up their recent woes and what might have been earlier on in the season.
Wilson himself told the Footballers’ Football podcast this week: “It’s the same again each week. We keep saying ‘we had chances, we had chances.’
“I’m obviously partly to blame for that because I’m a striker and I take responsibility. Full responsibility. I never shy away from owning up and taking accountability. I need to fix up in front of goal. You’re never going to go through a season of missing chances because, when you’re a goalscorer, you score goals no matter what.”
But he cannot shoulder all of the blame – he is one of four players at least one goal behind what would have been expected of them over the last eight games, with Fabian Schar leading the way with presentable chances missed against Arsenal, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Liverpool since the turn of the year.
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Howe is right, Newcastle’s metrics are far better than their results suggest. But even if they were getting what their chances and shots deserved, they would still be well off the pace to reach the top four.
Newcastle have operated with a small squad all season. Only Arsenal have made fewer changes to their starting line-up across the Premier League. It has been said it would be a miracle if Howe were to take Newcastle into the top four in his first full season in charge, with the club prioritising sustainable development over instant success.
Now, he is seeing how far Newcastle still have to go to catch up with their other Champions League rivals.
Watch Newcastle vs Wolves on Sky Sports Premier League from 4pm on Sunday; kick-off 4.30pm.
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