Ratio of extracellular water to intracellular water and simplified creatinine index as predictors of all-cause mortality for patients receiving hemodialysis

by Takahiro Yajima, Kumiko Yajima

The bioelectrical impedance analysis-measured ratio of extracellular water (ECW) to intracellular water (ICW) reflects fluid volume and malnutrition. It may be an indicator of protein-energy wasting and muscle wasting in hemodialysis patients. We examined the association between the ECW/ICW ratio and simplified creatinine index, which is a new surrogate marker of protein-energy wasting and muscle wasting, and whether their combination can accurately predict mortality. A total of 224 patients undergoing hemodialysis for more than 6 months and having undergone bioelectrical impedance analysis for the assessment of body composition were included. Patients were divided into two groups based on the cut-off values of the ECW/ICW ratio (0.57) and simplified creatinine index (20.4 mg/kg/day) for maximumly predicting mortality. Thereafter, they were cross-classified into four groups with each cut-off point. The ECW/ICW ratio was independently associated with the simplified creatinine index (β = -0.164; P = 0.042). During a follow-up of 3.5 years (2.0–6.0 years), 77 patients died. A higher ECW/ICW ratio (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.66, 95% confidence interval 1.99–6.72, P <0.0001) and lower simplified creatinine index (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.25, 95% confidence interval 1.34–3.79, P = 0.0021) were independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. The adjusted hazard ratio for the higher ECW/ICW ratio and lower simplified creatinine index group vs. the lower ECW/ICW ratio and higher simplified creatinine index group was 12.22 (95% confidence interval 3.68–40.57, p <0.0001). Furthermore, the addition of the ECW/ICW ratio and simplified creatinine index to the baseline risk model significantly improved the C-index from 0.831 to 0.864 (p = 0.045). In conclusion, the ECW/ICW ratio may be a surrogate marker of muscle wasting. Moreover, combining the ECW/ICW ratio and simplified creatinine index may improve the accuracy of predicting all-cause mortality and help stratify the mortality risk of hemodialysis patients.