Martin McDonagh déjà vu? A ‘Banshees of Inisherin’ screenplay Oscar loss would mirror his ‘Three Billboards’ trajectory
It may be easy to forget that acclaimed writer Martin McDonagh — the mind behind nine-time Oscar nominated film “The Banshees of Inisherin” — has never won an Academy Award for writing. He has earned Best Original Screenplay nominations for “In Bruges” in 2009, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” in 2018 and now for “Banshees” in 2023, and he even won back in 2006 for Best Live Action Short for “Six Shooter,” but the writing prize has been elusive. This year, he is in a close contest with Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s script for “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Might this nail-biting race shake out for McDonagh exactly as it did back in 2018, when the “Three Billboards” scribe ultimately lost to Jordan Peele for “Get Out”?
According to our current odds, roughly a third of our users predict “Banshees” to win for Best Original Screenplay, whereas more than half bet on “Everything Everywhere.” The race is much closer according to our Experts, though, where 15 of 28 predict McDonagh will win the prize, compared to 12 for “Everything Everywhere” — the lone holdout is currently predicting an upset for Todd Field for “TÁR.” Our editors overwhelmingly favor the Daniels’ script, with 10 of our 13 betting against “Banshees” to prevail.
If McDonagh does lose in this category for the third time, it will certainly feel like déjà vu, as the trajectory of the 2018 screenplay race shook out precisely as the contest has this year. His awards jaunt began that season on Jan. 7, when he took home the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay over “The Shape of Water,” “Lady Bird,” “The Post,” and “Molly’s Game.” Just four days later, he lost at the Critics Choice Awards to Peele for “Get Out.” Peele had an advantage at the WGA Awards on Feb. 11, where he won in a field in which “Three Billboards” was not eligible. McDonagh regained strength when he and Peele went head to head at BAFTA on Feb. 18 and he won, but Peele ultimately had the last laugh at the Oscars, winning his first trophy.
With just a slightly different order of awards ceremonies, McDonagh’s awards run through the 2023 precursors has played out identically. He started off the season strongly with a victory at the Globes on Jan. 10, where he triumphed over the Daniels and the screenplays of “The Fabelmans,” “TÁR,” and “Women Talking.” Five days later, “Everything Everywhere” had its revenge at Critics Choice, winning against McDonagh. An earlier date for the BAFTAs this season, on Feb. 19, allowed him to regain momentum, where he against bested the multiverse film. But this past Sunday, Kwan and Scheinert had an advantage at WGA, where McDonagh was not eligible, and they took the coveted prize at an opportune time during Oscar voting.
What accentuates these parallels even further is the type of films to which “Three Billboards” lost and “Banshees” may lose. Both “Get Out” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once” are breakout films for their respective writer-directors, earning Peele, Kwan and Scheinert their first Oscar nominations. They each earned the exact same three nominations for these films, too, in Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. Peel, Kwan and Scheinert are all young American filmmakers, and the casts of both “Get Out” and “Everything Everywhere” are predominantly comprised of people of color.
If Oscar night for “Banshees” does parallel that of “Three Billboards,” it will not end in victory for McDonagh. But could it mean that like Oscar winners Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell, lead Colin Farrell and supporting actress Kerry Condon will pull off those upsets after all?
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