OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2023

by Laurie Baron

Following my tradition, I am devoting this week’s column to my predictions for the Oscars. These are not necessarily the movies I liked the most, but rather the ones most likely to win based on the trends in Hollywood trade publications and other major film award winners. Speculating on winners has become more difficult since the Oscars adopted rank choice voting which results in consensus winners rather than films receiving the most first place votes. The outcome is also affected by ads and social media campaigns, contemporary political sensibilities and sentimental votes for underdogs previously nominated and failing to have won. Although I consistently have had 80 to 90 percent accuracy depending on the year, I now name second choices that might beat out my predicted winners due to the above factors.

Best Film: Everything, Everywhere, All at Once

Might Win: Banshees of Inisherin

Best Director: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything, Everywhere, All at Once

Might Win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Best Actor: Austin Butler, Elvis

Might Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Tar (This category, however, is a toss-up)

Might Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything, Everywhere, All at Once

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan, Everything, Everywhere, All at Once

Might Win: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything, Everywhere, All at Once

Might Win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best International Film: All Quiet on the Western Front

Might Win: Argentina: 1985

Best Animated Feature Film: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Might Win: Marcel, the Shell with Shoes On

Best Original Screenplay: Everything, Everywhere, All on Once

Might Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front

Might Win: Women Talking

Best Feature Documentary: Navalny

Might Win: Fire of Love

Baron is professor emeritus at San Diego State University. He may be contacted via Lawrence.baron@sdjewishworld.com. This article is republished from San Diego Jewish World which, along with The Moderate Voice, is a member of the San Diego Online News Association.

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