UFC Las Vegas Gambling Preview: Can Petr Yan get back on track against Merab Dvalishvili?

This Saturday, the UFC continues its barnstorming of March, following up UFC 285 (and preceding UFC 286) with one of the stronger Fight Night outings in recent memory. In the main event, former bantamweight champion Petr Yan takes on his arch-rival’s best bud — Merab Dvalishvili — in a matchup of two top-10 bantamweights.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Alexander Volkov, +130

The co-main event for the UFC this weekend features a battle of the Alexs, as Alexander Volkov takes on Alexandr Romanov, and I like a play on the underdog. Romanov is a big, aggressive grappler and has shown to be extremely dangerous on the ground, however, in his most recent fight, he also showed his limitations.

For as capable as Romanov is as a grappler, he does not offer much in terms of striking, and his gas tank is suspect, if not quite arrested and charged. Volkov is a good defensive wrestler, a vastly superior striker, and has an decent defensive ground game of his own. His submission loss to Tom Aspinall was his first such loss since 2010, and Aspinall is a very different sort of athlete than Romanov. I like Volkov’s chances to survive the first round and take over in the back half of the fight.

Ryan Spann, +145

I broke this one down a few weeks ago when this fight was originally supposed to happen, and wouldn’t you know it, the line remains exactly the same. As such, my bet remains exactly same, banking on Spann continuing to show his current form against the defensively porous Nikita Krylov.

Jonathan Martinez, +215

Call me crazy, but I’m not sold on Said Nurmagomedov. I know he’s had a stellar career thus far and he’s coming off of a slick ninja choke, but something about his game doesn’t sit quite right with me. It might simply be that he allows fights to come to him far too often. And while that has been working for him given his excellent finishing ability, that’s a risky proposition against Jonathan Martinez. In a fight that is probably mostly kickboxing, Martinez is going to be the one pushing the pace, chopping the tree with leg kicks and letting the hands go to back it up. If Nurmagomedov can land big counters to even the score, it’s probably his to lose, but Martinez is a live dog.

Prop Bets

Petr Yan by Decision, +110

I might be stubborn, but I still think Yan is probably the best all-around bantamweight in the world. In his previous four fights, Yan has gone 1-3, but those three losses belie the truth of the matter. One was a DQ in a fight he was winning, one was an extremely competitive split decision that he deserved to lose, and one was an extremely competitive split decision he should have won. What I’m trying to say here is, Yan is far from finished. And if he’s not, I think Dvalishvili has a hard time with him.

Dvalishvili is a hard-nosed, high-output kind of fighter who relies heavily on being insanely tough and insanely annoying to try and keep off you. But Yan excels at the latter part. The man has barely ever been taken down, and even when he is, most of the time he pops right back up. Dvalishvili is not the back-take artist that Aljamain Sterling is, so even if he does score takedowns, I doubt he’ll keep them for very long, and as the fight drags on, Yan will continue to pile up points on the feet. Dvalishvili has never actually been stopped in his career (the Ricky Simon technical submission was highly questionable), and so he will likely make it to the final horn, but this should be a good bounce-back spot for Yan.

Parlay of the Week

Petr Yan/Merab Dvalishvili Over 2.5 Rounds, -400

In 39 combined career fights, these two men have been finished once — the aforementioned questionable technical submission of Dvalishvili at the literal last second of the fight. It would be shocking if this fight ended early.

Nikita Krylov/Ryan Spann Does Not Go To Decision, -650

In their combined 66 fights, Krylov and Spann have gone to the final scorecards only nine times. Even if you only consider their UFC bouts, that number is still six times in 26 fights. These boys simply don’t come to leave it in the hands of the judges. Both are high offense fights who don’t prioritize defense. That’s going to lead to a finish, one way or the other.

Ariane Lipski/JJ Aldrich Over 1.5 Rounds, -400

In her eight UFC bouts, six of Lipski’s have gone over 7:30 second. Aldrich, meanwhile, is 11 for 11 in the same category. Lipski is on a bad run of stoppage losses recently, but Aldrich has not finished anyone since 2016, which was back on the regional circuit.

Parlay these three plays together for -125 odds.

Long Shot of the Week

Alexander Volkov to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3, +1600

As noted above, there are real concerns about Romanov’s gas tank, concerns that don’t exist with Volkov. We’ve seen the former Bellator heavyweight champion go five rounds before, and still look pretty good even in fights he was losing. More to the point, Volkov is a substantially more threatening finisher than Marcin Tybura is, so if Romanov gasses early again, Volkov has a very good chance to score a late stoppage.

Wrap Up

Another catastrophe last week. Considering how good 2022 was, 2023 has been nearly impossible to get anything going. Still, we press on.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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